TFI: Goodbye West Coast Swing, hello Florida
 
Feb. 27, 2007

Welcome to the East Coast, gentlemen.

This week the PGA TOUR makes its annual migration from the West Coast Swing to Florida, resetting its collective timepieces and mindsets. From here on, no one's allowed to say it's too early in the season to analyze the game or that they're shaking things out.

But this isn't Florida as most TOUR players recognize it.

The Honda Classic, played this week at little-seen PGA National, opens the Florida run for the first time in ages.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
2006 Honda Classic Results
Position Player Score
1 Luke Donald -12
2 Geoff Ogilvy -10
T3 David Toms -9
T3 Billy Mayfair -9
5 Tom Pernice, Jr. -8
6 Dudley Hart -7
T7 Stephen Ames -6
T7 Frank Lickliter II -6
T7 Jeff Gove -6
T10 D.A. Points -5
T10 Mathew Goggin -5

The PODS Championship (formerly, The Tampa Bay Championship) leaps from the autumn to the season's third month, giving a whole new look to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort.

Doral hosts the World Golf Championships-CA Championship, reportedly bearing some new muscle to challenge the world's best players.

THE PLAYERS Championship shift to a May date also makes room for the Shell Houston Open gives players a second crack at the Tournament Course at Redstone GC.

The dependable element of this five-week stretch? Arnold Palmer and his Bay Hill CC, the Orlando staple since 1979.

Before the season began, The Fantasy Insider predicted that the schedule and new FedExCup would draw plenty of attention. And from what TFI saw in the Florida newspapers last week during his all-too-brief vacation, those questions should percolate more from now to The Masters.

In fact, TFI spent a good hour of his vacation thinking about how this month's jumbled schedule relates to you, girls and boys.

Now, don't discount his reasoning because that hour was spent baking in brilliant sunshine while floating on one of those foam noodle thingies in the shallow end of the hotel pool.

(And, before you ask: the weather was lovely and your postcard is in the mail. Honest.)

What TFI devised with won't win him an Oscar or get him nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize -- although he'll admit to spending a few noodle-buoyant minutes toying with formulating an exploratory committee as a first step in a run for the presidency.

No, TFI's philosophy is too stunningly simple to catch the imaginations of jaded, all-knowing fantasy competitors. But five words sum up the essence of how TFI thinks you should concentrate your energies in League Championship and Salary Cap Cup during the next five weeks:

It's the recent performance, stupid.

The afternoon heat helped TFI realize how to deal with all these new courses and familiar courses in unfamiliar weather or conditioning. And what it boils down to is that the hot players should draw your attention from now through The Masters.

Once upon a time the California guys would take a week or two and hang back at home while the southern contingent, especially the Floridians, would start playing every week.

Let's be honest: Course conditioning has improved by such vast degrees in the last decade that there's far less concern about the adjustment from the West Coast's finer-bladed grasses to the stiff Bermudas seen in Florida. If anything, the players as a whole are happy to see Poa annua greens and Kikuyu grass in the rearview mirror.

But we're also seeing players from all geographic sections capitalizing on good play by tacking one more week onto a hot run. Phil Mickelson, who made a late commitment to play in the Nissan Open, is the most prominent example but he's hardly alone.

In fact, the top five in official earnings this season departing the West Coast have averaged 6.6 tournaments through the first eight weeks: Charles Howell III (six), Mickelson (six), Vijay Singh (seven), Aaron Baddeley (six) and John Rollins (seven).

That's nearly a full tournament more than 2006's pre-FedExCup average of 5.8 for the top five money winners leaving the West Coast: Rory Sabbatini (seven), Chad Campbell (six), Geoff Ogilvy (five), Stuart Appleby (five) and Arron Oberholser (six).

That's one reason TFI has for jumping on a player like Padraig Harrington, who lost in the second round of last week's World Golf Championships-Acceture Match Play Championship but has six top-10s around the world since last autumn's Volvo Masters on the PGA European Tour.

Or a Peter Lonard, a streaky player who was third in last week's Mayakoba Golf Classic.

Or Jeff Quinney, who leaves the West Coast with four straight top-10s.

We don't know all the moves on the tournament commitment lists before a final field is announced, so we can't easily tell when someone is extending a run by tacking on an extra week or trying to blunt a poor run by quietly dropping a week.

We also have little idea of how everyone will play some of these upcoming little-seen courses, like this week at The Champions layout at PGA National. We do know, though, that the site of the 1987 PGA Championship has water in play at 16 of 18 holes, so there is strong indication that accuracy will be important.

But what we absolutely can determine is who has been in contention repeatedly in recent weeks. Those are the guys that you should grab for your rosters and activate in your lineups during this next month.

Hot counts. Especially in Florida, as TFI learned last week floating in the pool.

Rotisserie lineup for Expert League at The Honda Classic: Padraig Harrington, Kevin Stadler, Kevin Sutherland, David Toms. Active but not in lineup: Cameron Beckman, Anders Hansen, Ryan Palmer, Steve Stricker. Not in field: K.J. Choi, Tim Clark, Geoff Ogilvy, Bubba Watson. Roster change: Dropped Steve Gutschewski, added Kevin Stadler.

Match-play lineup for Public League 3359 at The Honda Classic: Davis Love III, Nick O'Hern, Mark Calcavecchia, Andrew Buckle. Reserves: Daniel Chopra, Craig Barlow, Anders Hansen. Not in field: Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Troy Matteson, Jonathan Byrd, Zach Johnson.

Match Play Madness results: 41 points (8,893rd). Hey, at least TFI had Henrik Stenson winning in the first two rounds!

Match Play Madness winner: baracho 140 points.

Salary Cap Cup results for the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship and Mayakoba Golf Classic at Riviera Maya-Cancun: The main lineup of Tiger Woods (587 FedExCup points, lost in third round), Adam Scott (86, lost first round), Chad Campbell (1,260, fourth place), Darren Clarke (86, lost first round) and Shaun Micheel (587, lost third round) earned 3,356 points and placed 2,020th. Through Week 8 it totaled 25,828 points and ranked 1,500th. If nothing else, this crummy week boosts TFI up the overall standings. Big whoop!

The "Hey, buddy" backup lineup of Phil Mickelson (262 points, lost second round), Vijay Singh (86, lost first round), Adam Scott (86, lost first round), John Rollins (86, lost first round) and Anthony Kim (0, did not start) earned 520 points and placed 24,196th. Through Week 8 it totaled 13,156 points and ranked 15,131st. OK, TFI knows he was in a mad rush on the way to the airport when he made these picks but has absolutely no idea how Adam Scott showed up on both lineups. Honest!

Week 8 winner: Nils5 9,959.

Segment 1 leader: Let The Big Dawg Eat 40,141.

Salary Cap Cup lineup for The Honda Classic: Main lineup, Padraig Harrington $293,500, David Toms $283,750, Fred Funk $228,500, Matt Kuchar $85,500, Jose Coceres $75,000. Total: $966,250. "Hey, buddy" backup lineup, Davis Love III $287,000, Robert Allenby $277,250, Peter Lonard $196,000, Kevin Stadler $160,250, Anthony Kim $75,000. Total: $995,500. Tiebreakers: 274, 1.

Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. Please be sure to include your name, where you're from, the name of your team and, if it relates to League Championship, the name of your league and whether you're competing in the rotisserie or match-play format.