Inside the FedExCup: Canadian predictions, more

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Scott Pianowski is The Fantasy Insider; Steve Dennis is a PGA TOUR staffer who digs through FedExCup points data for fun. (We don't get it, either.) They tend to analyze the TOUR from very different perspectives, and now they're going head-to-head in the first of their weekly e-mail exchanges going Inside the FedExCup.

To: Scott
From: Steve
Subject: You listened to me? Are you nuts?

Campbell

My picks last week at the Open Championship are another good reason not to quit my day job.

Stewart Cink and Rod Pampling both missed the cut, although I still believe they'll finish well in the Regular Season, and Cink will make a run at the FedExCup. Ditto for Sergio Garcia, despite his awful inward nine on Sunday at the Open Championship.

Looking at the U.S. Bank Championship results, Chad Campbell may be coming into form just in time for the Playoffs, and Richard S. Johnson broke through to win, moving up 110 spots in the FedExCup standings, to 111th.

To: Steve
From: Scott
Subject: Irish Ayes

Harrington

It was not a good week to be a golf prognosticator. The wrist injury and burden of defending got everyone off the Padraig Harrington scent. Greg Norman obviously came out of nowhere. Ian Poulter had a mediocre record in majors before last week. Perhaps some of the Irish lads fell into a win with a homer pick, but otherwise, we all looked silly on Monday.

My friends and family draw the line at seven hours of golf a day, so I didn't get a chance to watch the U.S. Bank, though I had my eyes on the results daily. Kenny Perry remains a fantastic story, but it was disappointing not to see him up against the best in the world. Watch out for Campbell down the stretch; he's always had the iron game, and he's finally starting to get some confidence on the greens.

To: Scott
From: Steve
Subject: Northern Exposure

Four weeks left in the Regular Season. This week's RBC Canadian Open is a critical test, especially for those who are not eligible for the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational and/or the PGA Championship. Relying on the Wyndham Championship, the last event in the Regular Season, to punch your ticket into the Playoffs is pretty iffy.

Who is going to use this week to step into the spotlight?

To: Steve
From: Scott
Subject: AK suited

Anthony Kim is my pick in Canada, even with Jim Furyk in the field. He was the top ballstriker at Royal Birkdale but a balky putter did him in (four-footers were downright treacherous in last week's wind). There's no reason to expect the putting slump to continue for Kim; he's got a wonderful touch on and around the greens. Give him four days of reasonable weather and we might see a runaway here.

To: Scott
From: Steve
Subject: 30 pieces of silver (lining)

I'm with you -- I think Jim Furyk and Kim are the class of the field at Glen Abbey. However, there's also a lot at stake for the other guys.

Furyk

If you use last year as the model, there isn't much mystery left in who will be in the top 30 in the FedExCup standings going into the Playoffs -- just three players moved from outside to inside the top 30 between the end of the British Open and the beginning of the Playoffs, and all three of those players were already in the top 40. But that's mostly because Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk won three of the remaining four full-field events.

This year could be very different, starting this week. There are more than 60 players in the field for whom a win would mean a top 30 FedExCup ranking, as well as a berth in the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational and the PGA Championship.

Kim

I know I've been harping on this all year, but getting into the top 30 for the Playoffs is important.

Here's one way to think about it: the 31st seed starts the Playoffs 3,410 points behind the player in first -- about the difference between the third-place finisher and the last player making the cut in a Playoff event. He starts 1,535 behind 10th, which is roughly the difference between eighth and last. So the 31st seed is spotting the best seeds a top 10 finish before he ever tees it up.

There's also the sheer "volume" effect -- at the very least, the 31st seed must play better than all 30 golfers ahead of him, whereas the 10th seed "only" has to play better than the nine who are in front of him. For guys like Camilo Villegas, Mike Weir and Retief Goosen, who probably feel they have a legitimate shot to win the FedExCup, those numbers will make a difference over the four weeks of the Playoffs.

It's going to be very interesting to see if they can get it started this week.