Inside the FedExCup: Too much volatility?

text size

First, it's way too early to make a call on that. We're seeing a lot more movement this year than last, which is entirely by design, and we're seeing the possibility of surprising things happening -- for example, the 100th seed winning an event and moving into first place in the standings.

Greenwood/Getty Images

With two wins in four starts, it's hard to argue with Vijay Singh's current status atop the FedExCup points standings.

RELATED LINKS

Making the top 70
FedExCup standings
Who to watch this week
Video: Opening Shot

Let's take a look at the top 10: Vijay Singh, Sergio Garcia, Kevin Sutherland, Phil Mickelson, Justin Leonard, Anthony Kim, Kenny Perry, Ben Curtis, Stewart Cink and Jim Furyk. Does that look crazy? It certainly doesn't to me -- it looks like a very high-quality group of players.

We're one event in to a four-event series, and, at this point, the lowest-ranked player coming into the first event of the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup who could move into first after the second event is Kevin Sutherland, who was 57th in the standings at the end of the Regular Season. He'd have to win the Deutsche Bank Championship to take the lead, which would mean he'd have a first and a second in two Playoff events. Personally, I think a guy who was 57th who earned a first and a second should move into first in the standings.

Some members of the press are upset about possibilities without understanding what would be required to turn those possibilities into reality. For example, I read an article yesterday stating that Sutherland winning the FedExCup would be a travesty because he's only won once before in his career. This author and others have also complained that Padraig Harrington could miss THE TOUR Championship, which, in their minds, would be a travesty because he's had a great season, and he merely missed one cut.

We touched on the Sutherland situation earlier, but let's take a closer look: Sutherland will not win the FedExCup because of a tie for second at The Barclays. He's going to have to earn it by having the kind of four-week stretch that would cause anyone to agree he would be a worthy champion. He's currently third, but he's 7,550 points behind Vijay Singh.

Let's assume for a moment he finishes second at the Deutsche Bank Championship, and Chad Campbell, currently 21st in the standings, wins, Singh misses the cut and Garcia finishes 70th: Campbell moves to first, Singh stays in second, Sutherland remains in third and all three are within 1,000 points of one another. Garcia is less than 4,000 points behind, in fourth.

Now, let's assume Sutherland wins the BMW Championship, Singh and Campbell have so-so finishes and Garcia finishes fifth. In that scenario, Sutherland has had three great finishes in a row -- tied for second, solo second and a victory. However, despite the fact in those three weeks he's had the best year of his career, he's still not the FedExCup Champion. Singh, Campbell, Garcia and potentially two or three others have a chance to overtake him at THE TOUR Championship.

Let's look at Harrington's situation: Harrington is only in danger of missing THE TOUR Championship if he misses the cut again this week. That would mean two missed cuts in two events in the Playoffs. And what does Harrington think about that? "I think that's fair enough," he said.

"I think that's the way the system should work. I think it's a fair reflection that I dropped about 20 spots by missing the cut. I think it should be very volatile. That's what a playoff system should be like; you've got to go produce... I would definitely have it that a guy who's around 40th and finishes top 10 moves up into 20th, 25th, something like that, gives him a chance at winning it."

Harrington's situation is a great example of the importance of the Regular Season. He missed a cut and dropped to 23rd in the standings. But he's not in danger of missing THE TOUR Championship unless he misses the cut this week as well. Conversely, players ranked outside the top 30 who missed the cut last week will need to play extremely well this week or next to have a chance to be in THE TOUR Championship, and if they miss the cut again, they won't even be eligible for the BMW Championship.

The Regular Season gave Harrington some cushion to have a tough week and bounce back from it. If he plays extremely well from here on out, he still has a chance to win the FedExCup. If he plays moderately well, he will be in THE TOUR Championship. A worse initial rank would have eliminated those possibilities.

Too much volatility? Too early to call, but the early returns are pointing towards no.