Scenarios: How can they clinch the FedExCup?
Editor's Note: While it's true that Vijay Singh is certainly in command of the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup, it's not over yet. Steve Dennis takes a look at how Singh -- and his challengers -- can clinch the big prize.
1. How can Singh clinch the championship?
Assuming he finishes -- i.e., doesn't have a disqualification (DQ) or withdrawal (WD), or doesn't play (DNP) -- he needs to have a 10,501 point lead over second place to guarantee he'll win the FedExCup. As of now, his lead over Sergio Garcia in second is 12,225, so the only way Singh can control whether he clinches in St. Louis is to win. Then, even if Garcia finishes second, Singh will have at least a 15,825 point lead and will be the FedExCup champion even if he doesn't earn any points in THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola.
If Singh finishes second at the BMW Championship and anyone other than Garcia or Mike Weir wins, Singh will clinch (again, assuming no DQ/WD/DNP).
If Singh finishes fifth at BMW, a few players could still be in contention. Specifically, if the BMW winner comes from among the top 12 in the standings, that player would be mathematically alive, as would Garcia with a three-way tie for second or better, and Weir with a second alone. Thus, Singh can clinch if he finishes fifth, someone from outside the top 12 wins, Garcia finishes third or worse and Weir finishes tied for second or worse.
If Singh finishes last at BMW, he can still clinch, but it requires a winner from outside the top 24, Garcia finishing outside the top five, Weir finishing outside the top three and Leonard outside the top two.
2. How can Sergio Garcia win the championship?
If Garcia wins twice, he will earn 23,500 points, for a total of 131,775. To catch him, Singh would need to earn 11,275 points -- two third-place finishes, or a second at BMW and an eighth at THE TOUR Championship.
With a second at BMW and a win at THE TOUR Championship, Garcia would have a total of 128,175. Singh could catch him with two seventh-place finishes or a third at BMW and a 24th at THE TOUR Championship, or a last-place finish at BMW and a third in Atlanta. Other combinations would also work.
If Singh has two mid-pack finishes -- say, 35th at BMW and 20th at THE TOUR Championship -- he would end the Playoffs with 125,470 points, meaning Garcia would need 17,196 to overtake him. A third and a first (in either order) would suffice, but two second-place finishes wouldn't.
If Singh has two last-place finishes, he would end the Playoffs with 124,601 points. Garcia would still need a first and a third at BMW and THE TOUR Championship, or a fifth at BMW and a win in Atlanta.
3. How can Mike Weir win the championship?
If Weir wins twice, he will earn 23,500 points, for a total of 130,465. To catch him, Singh would need to earn 9,965 points -- a third and a fourth, or a second at BMW and an 21st at THE TOUR Championship. Other combinations also work.
With a second at BMW and a win at THE TOUR Championship, Weir would have a total of 126,865. Singh could catch him with two 13th-place finishes or a 4th at BMW and any finish at THE TOUR Championship, or a last-place finish at BMW and a fifth in Atlanta. Other combinations would also work.
If Singh has two mid-pack finishes -- say, 35th at BMW and 20th at THE TOUR Championship -- he would end the Playoffs with 125,470 points, meaning Weir would need 18,505 to overtake him. A 2nd and a 1st (in either order) would suffice, but a first and third wouldn't.
If Singh has two last-place finishes, he would end the Playoffs with 124,601 points. Weir would still need a win and a second at BMW and THE TOUR Championship, or a third at BMW and a win in Atlanta.
4. How can anyone else win the championship?
They'll need to win twice and hope Singh has a couple of off weeks. Justin Leonard could potentially eke out a win with a second at BMW and a victory at THE TOUR Championship, but no one else has even that hope, as long as Singh earns any points at all in both events. With two wins, Leonard would have 128,888 points, meaning Singh would need 8,388 in the two events, equivalent to two fifth-place finishes. Jim Furyk would have 127,729 points with two wins, 7,229 more than Singh's current total. Singh would need two ninth-place finishes to overcome that deficit. Even if Singh finishes last in both events, only players currently among the top 24 could beat his total with two victories.
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