The Fantasy Insider: Accenture/Mayakoba

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Video: The Fantasy Insider breaks down the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship
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It's still February on my calendar, but I've got spring very much on the mind. Brackets in Arizona. Tee shots in Mexico. I don't care how many miles I've logged on my snowblower this winter in suburban Detroit, it feels like bathing suit weather in the office. Let's fix a drink, plop on a sombrero, and get this party started.

It's a 2-for-1 special in The Fantasy Insider this week, as we look at the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship (which begins Wednesday) and the Mayakoba Golf Classic (which tees off Thursday). New games, different formats, more picks to make, more action. Make sure you've got plenty of free time this week, friends.

Match Play Madness
That quarterly report can wait, right? There's nothing quite as enjoyable as taking a little personal time to fill out a bracket, so take the phone off the hook, cancel those afternoon appointments, and I'll give you my rationale behind all 63 of my selections in arguably the most fun event of the year.

Tiger Woods tees off on the final day of practice in Tucson. (WireImage)

Feel like picking a few upsets? Let 'em fly. The shocking big-time stunner lives at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship, even more so than in the NCAA basketball tournament that comes next month. No. 2 seeds barely have a winning record in the history of this event, while No. 5 seeds have a losing mark.

Jeff Maggert shocked the world with a win at the first WGC-Accenture back in 1999, and Kevin Sutherland did more than his share of bracket busting with his title run in 2002. Tiger Woods?

He hasn't made it past the third round over the last three years (though he did lift the trophy in 2003 and 2004). At some point during the next few days, down will be up, left will be right, and nothing will make sense. And trust me, you'll love it.

Get comfortable and I'll give you the pretzel logic behind my 63 dart throws, err, selections.

Don't agree with my dance card? No worries -- get over to our fantasy section and enter your own sheet, Carnac.

Bobby Jones Bracket, Round 1
• Aaron Baddeley over Mark Calcavecchia: I'll take the younger player and the better putter. Baddeley went a couple of rounds last year before he ran into a sizzling Henrik Stenson.

• David Toms over Zach Johnson: With all due respect to Johnson, one of the up-and-coming stars in the game, I don't know how you look past what Toms has done here. He's 20-7 in the event, including the romp over Chris DiMarco in the 2005 final.

Arron Oberholser (WireImage)

• Mike Weir over Arron Oberholser: I'm a fan of both guys, but until we see Oberholser shake the rust off and get fully healthy, the percentage play is to pick Weir in this spot.

• Tiger Woods over J.B. Holmes: You can fill in your own comment here if you like.

• Ian Poulter over Soren Hansen: Poulter's been decent in this tournament (9-5 record), while Hansen is making his debut. Let's not get cute with this selection.

• K.J. Choi over Camilo Villegas: While Villegas can take down any player when his game is firing, Choi's consistency is too much to look past.

• Paul Casey over Robert Karlsson: The smart money makes Casey a mild favorite here and I'll sign up as well; Karlsson has yet to see the second round here.

• Rory Sabbatini over Bradley Dredge: Sabbatini is the type of player who could go deep into this event or get eliminated quickly on the first day. I'd feel better about this pick if I saw a better outing from Sabbatini in Los Angeles.

Round 2
• Toms over Baddeley: Here's a good match to follow, if it comes to pass. I love how both players compete, but Toms has too much of a track record to look past.

• Woods over Weir: Tiger is intimidating enough in stroke play; his glare and gumption will get him through the early matches even if his swing is off.

• Choi over Poulter: I don't blame you if you have Poulter on your dark-horse list, but Choi has joined the elite class over the last year or so.

• Sabbatini over Casey: Something tells me this is one side of the bracket I'm going to get completely wrong.

Round 3
• Woods over Toms: Not everyone has the stomach to go toe-to-toe with Woods, but Toms does. There's a better shot of an upset here than you might think.

• Choi over Sabbatini: K.J.'s wedge game is a thing of beauty.

Round 4
• Woods over Choi: I actually had the opposite result typed up and ready to go, but Choi has never gone deep into this event and Tiger obviously has. I still have plenty of time to make some cute upset picks.

Ben Hogan Bracket, Round 1
• Trevor Immelman over Shingo Katayama: There's always a wrestling match every time Immelman's name comes up in my yearly auction. I'll trust the wisdom of the crowd. And heck, he's won six of 10 matches here.

Ernie Els (WireImage)

• Henrik Stenson over Robert Allenby: Everyone's going to have Stenson, the defending champ, in this spot, but Allenby has a winning record at this event and I like how he was hitting it last week. Here's one upset special.

• Andres Romero over Retief Goosen: I'm pulling for Goosen to get his game and confidence back, but after watching his 79-77 struggle at the Northern Trust Open, I'm not ready to jump on board.

• Jonathan Byrd over Ernie Els: When you're behind an elite putter, you always have a chance, and this format isn't a Big Easy favorite (6-8) by any means. Let's have some fun and pick a longshot.

• Martin Kaymer over Boo Weekley: There's a lot of buzz over Kaymer, the 2007 European Tour Rookie of the Year, so I'll buy a ticket and give him some run as he makes his United States debut.

• Sergio Garcia over John Senden: Garcia has too much format experience and past success to not dial him up.

• Woody Austin over Toru Taniguchi: Gotta have some fun with your picks and that's what I'm doing here with a mild upset.

• Adam Scott over Brendan Jones: Last week reiterated to me that it's no fun to be off Adam Scott when everyone else has him. Actually, it's downright scary.

Round 2
• Allenby over Immelman: I saw a confident Allenby striding around Riviera and I'll run with that theme.

• Byrd over Romero: No guts, no glory. We're seen Cinderellas go deep in this format many times.

• Garcia over Kaymer: He might not be my favorite player in the field, but it's always more fun if Garcia is around.

• Scott over Austin: Star paranoia lasts for another round. Scott always has that cool, calm, "I can shoot 63 pretty much anytime I feel like it" air to him, doesn't he?

Round 3
• Allenby over Byrd: It's one thing to root for the story, but I'm betting with my head on this one.

• Scott over Garcia: Let's all root for this match to happen, deal?

Round 4
• Allenby over Scott: We've never seen a pair of No. 1 seeds make the Final Four in this event, and I've already got a ticket punched for Tiger, so it looks like the other top guns will be tripped up on my card. Heck, we haven't seen a single top seed make the tournament semifinals since 2004.

Gary Player Bracket, Round 1
- Brand Snedeker over Lee Westwood: It's the kid's debut here and all, but Westwood has a 3-7 mark here over the years.

• Geoff Ogilvy over Justin Leonard: No one gets more out of his nerve and guts than Leonard does, but Ogilvy won this event in 2006 and lost to Henrik Stenson in last year's final. That has to carry the pick.

• Stuart Appleby over Tim Clark: It's never hard for me to push play with the likeable Appleby, and Clark has missed the cut in his last three events.

• Phil Mickelson over Pat Perez: The key for Perez is staying in the match early, buying into the possibility of the upset. But Lefty's game has shown flashes of brilliance in the young season, and while California is his favorite place to play, Arizona isn't far behind.

- Niclas Fasth over Richard Green: Fasth has plenty of experience here, while Green has three first-round exits. Let's not overthink it.

• Vijay Singh over Peter Hanson: Life is a series of coin flips and Singh is a .500 play in this event, so this wouldn't be the biggest shock if an upset happens. But Hanson's making his Accenture debut and Vijay's been hitting it better this year than people realize, so we'll keep him around for a bit.

• Scott Verplank over Nick O'Hern: Don't look past the steady O'Hern, who eliminated Tiger Woods in both 2005 and 2007. Verplank surprisingly has a losing record at the Accenture, too. That said, I'm trusting what my eyes have seem from Verplank over the years at the Ryder Cup and at the Presidents Cup. He can go deep here, and an opening win over O'Hern would be a nice pushing-off point.

• Justin Rose over Rod Pampling: With all due respect to the solid, underrated Pampling, I still see star quality in Rose, a few levels left to climb.

Round 2
- Ogilvy over Snedeker: Two dominant years get the check mark over an Accenture rookie.

• Mickelson over Appleby: In a different year, I'd be a little upset hungry here, but Mickelson showed too much in the first swing of the year.

• Fasth over Singh: I've never heard him comment to the contrary, but I get the idea this isn't Vijay's favorite format.

• Verplank over Rose: There's a reason why Verplank was a captain's choice for the 2006 Ryder Cup. He's got the stomach to carry him when his swing isn't just right.

Round 3
• Ogilvy over Mickelson: Don't bother trying to reach me Friday if this match is on the tube.

• Verplank over Fasth: It's going to have a Ryder Cup feel to it.

Round 4
• Verplank over Ogilvy: Don't mess with Texas.

Sam Snead Bracket, Round 1
• Luke Donald over Nick Dougherty: Honestly, I thought Donald would already be a superstar by now, not just another good player. But his third-place run in L.A. was a nifty 2008 debut on our side of the pond, and he's got a winning mark at this yearly throwdown. Okay, I'm on board.

• Angel Cabrera over Anders Hansen: I fell in love with Cabrera's joie de vivre a few years back, so there's no way I'm picking him to be upset early, especially when he's favored in his opener.

• Richard Sterne over Hunter Mahan: The word isn't completely out on Sterne yet, a rock-solid Euro who's already got a win in 2008. I'm in awe of Mahan's ability, but he's been a little hit-or-miss in the early part of the season.

Padraig Harrington (WireImage)

• Steve Stricker over Daniel Chopra: Chopra has stumbled a bit after his fast start -- missing three out of four cuts -- and Stricker has won 60 percent of his matches here. Look for a different spot to get upset friendly.

• Stewart Cink over Miguel Jimenez: Two solid, experienced guys, but I'll give the edge to Cink, who won three matches last year and enters the 2008 derby well rested.

• Padraig Harrington over Jerry Kelly: Both players have winning records here so don't be surprised if it's one of the better Day 1 matches. But I get the idea that the British Open win cleared the way for Harrington to truly graduate into the superstar class, and that earns him the mark here.

• Stephen Ames over Charles Howell: Gotta give some props to Ames, who went deep here in 2007 on the heels of his blowout loss the previous season (never give Tiger Woods any extra incentive, friends). These are two players I have trouble handicapping on a regular basis, I'll just admit that.

• Colin Montgomerie over Jim Furyk: It would be a big upset to a lot of people but not to Monty -- and don't discount how much that matters in this format.

Round 2
• Cabrera over Donald: If it walks like a duck and sounds like a duck and looks like a duck, pencil the guy into the Round of 16.

• Stricker over Sterne: Was tempted to go upset, but I don't want to see the Stricker girls go home disappointed.

• Harrington over Cink: Another match you'll want to follow around all afternoon -- and I doubt it will be over early.

• Ames over Montgomerie: One guy never smiles, one guy never stops smiling.

Round 3
• Cabrera over Stricker: Oakmont 2007, revisited.

• Harrington over Ames: Little known Paddy fact: he's related to Dan Harrington (the poker legend) and Joey Harrington (the professional quarterback).

Round Four
- Harrington over Cabrera: The head would root for Cabrera here, but Harrington's got more consistency in his game.

Final Four
Tiger Woods, Robert Allenby, Scott Verplank, Padraig Harrington

Champion: Woods over Verplank

Okay, maybe not the upset you were rooting for. I'll make up for it by picking Murray State to cut down the nets six weeks from now.

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PGATOUR.com Pick 'em

You need one player in each of the six groups and a wild card selection. Robert Allenby was our proudest pick from last week, but not dialing up Phil Mickelson in the top spot was costly.

Group 1 Pick: Joe Durant

Other Options: Steve Marino, Nicholas Thompson

Driving accuracy is critical at the tight but tricky El Camaleon Golf Club course, a 6,923-yard track with plenty of agua in play. With that in mind, Durant becomes a slam-dunk on my card; he's one of the straightest hitters around (13th in driving accuracy this year, sixth in 2007, first in 2005). I'd feel better if he played in the event last season, but given that it's just the second year of the tournament, I'm not going to overrate the course-knowledge factor.

Marino was eighth in the first Mayakoba Golf Classic last year, so he's not a Plan B if Durant isn't your speed. Thompson hasn't been over the grounds yet, though with his putter you've always got a chance (he's fifth in putting this season).

Group 2 Pick: Chez Reavie

Other Options: Corey Pavin, Y.E. Yang, Parker McLachlin

I like what I've seen out of the heady Reavie, who's made 4-of-5 cuts and hasn't been intimidated in his first run around the PGA TOUR. He'll need a short memory after the final-round 78 he carded at the Northern Trust Open, but I'm trusting my eyes here. This kid is the genuine article.

McLachlin is probably the favorite in this pool and he did run 18th in Mexico last year, but I'd like to see a more consistent driver before I sign up. Pavin I'm a little gun shy on after watching him struggle at his favorite event last week (he's generally automatic at Riviera Country Club), and Yang's swing never got comfortable in Los Angeles, either.

Bill Haas is no longer in the field so scratch him from your program.

Group 3 Pick: Fred Funk

Other Options: Matt Kuchar, Joe Ogilvie, Doug Labelle, Matt Jones

Look, if you don't like Fred Funk, you probably don't like ice cream. The affable king of the middle of the fairway also happens to be the defending champ here, and this is one week where I'm not going to invoke the repeating curse. I'll be surprised if he's not in the hunt on the weekend, playing on a course that clearly suits what he does best.

I gave Kuchar some play in the staff picks, liking the way he's hit the ball over his last three events. He was respectable (18th) in the first Mayakoba Golf Classic. LaBelle's game has slipped a bit this month after a nice January push, and Jones hasn't cracked 70 since the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. Ogilvie is the hardest player to figure in this pool; he ran ninth at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, but his two starts around that event resulted in Friday trunk slams. I'll play it safe and roll with the Funkster.

Group 4 Pick: James Driscoll

Other Options: Brian Gay, Briny Baird, Bubba Watson, Brett Rumford

Driscoll has yet to disappoint in two starts this year (20th at the Sony Open, 14th at Pebble Beach) and I trust him on the greens, so even in his first stop here let's give him a shot. No one from this pool is known for driving accuracy (they're all outside the Top 80 I that stat), so it becomes a feel pick as much as anything.

Rumford hasn't cashed a check since his strong effort at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic, and Watson's aggressive style might not fit the course. Gay had a steady first month but his swing got away from him in Los Angeles. Baird didn't challenge for the title last year but at least he's seen the course, and he's had four credible starts in 2008. His fourth-round scoring has been interesting to say the least; he carded a blistering 65 at the FBR Open three weeks back, but he struggled on Sunday at the Northern Trust Open (76) and the Buick Invitational (78).

Group 5 Pick: Robert Gamez

Other Options: John Merrick, Daisuke Maruyama, Kenneth Ferrie, Jay Williamson

I'm surprised Gamez didn't crack the Top 60 here last season, but he's straight off the tee and can make amends this time around. Maruyama is another solid driver and he played consistently at Pebble, so I wouldn't be afraid to use him on another water-heavy track.

Merrick enters this week off a pair of missed cuts, so I'll look at other options. Ferrie and Williamson haven't seen the course yet.

Group 6 Pick: Peter Lonard

Other Options: Jesper Parnevik, Shigeki Maruyama, Brad Adamonis, Jin Park

Lonard finally put things together last week (T22) after a messy start to the season, and he ran third in Mexico last year. That's enough evidence for me. Adamonis and Park are making their Mayakoba Golf Classic debut, and I worry about Parnevik and Maruyama keeping the ball out of trouble consistently enough to contend.