The Fantasy Insider: Northern Trust Open
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Roll out the red carpet, cue up a little Randy Newman, and let's all love L.A. together. With 17 of the top 20 in the world hitting the course at the Northern Trust Open this week, it's truly a star-studded event.
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| Rory Sabbatini at the Northern Trust Open | ||||||||||||||
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Fantasy owners welcome the loaded field -- more talent in the mix adds to the challenge, brings more diversity to the selections. More options, simply put, makes it more fun.
Wearing a pair of sunglasses and running through the field (nobody walks in L.A.), let's open up the fantasy windows and see what we can figure out for Riviera.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups and a wild card selection. Vijay Singh was our happiest result from last week, but like most people we came up empty with Phil Mickelson in the driver's seat.
Group 1 Pick: Rory Sabbatini
Other Options: K.J. Choi, J.B. Holmes, D.J. Trahan, Daniel Chopra
Let's disclose up front that I'm a Sabbatini fan. I'm not turned off by his confidence or willingness to be frank in the media, and I like that he's always keeping the pace of play up (I'd rather get a root canal than play a five-hour round). I think he's misunderstood at times in the golf world.
But even the Sabbatini critics would have to admit he's a slam-dunk in this pool, carrying a strong Riviera resume while the rest of the group is somewhat lacking. Sabbatini won here two years back, he was ninth last season, and he's also got a second-place finish to offer. To anyone paying attention, this is the way to play it.
Choi looms as the Plan B if you want a different choice; he's made seven straight cuts at Riviera, including a fifth, and he's about as steady as anyone on the TOUR right now. Otherwise, there's no form angle to play -- Chopra has yet to play the weekend in four Northern Trust appearances, and neither Holmes or Trahan were able to contend in their one stop here.
Group 2 Pick: Steve Elkington
Other Options: Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker, Ryuji Imada, Vijay Singh
Elkington is the cute sleeper play in this group; he's already bagged a pair of Top-5s this year and he's got a history of playing well at the Northern Trust Open (13 of 14 cuts made, including six Top-10 finishes). And for all the star power in this pool, the recent results are a little less than you might expect.
Singh has made six straight cuts at Riviera but he's yet to really make a run at the title, never finishing higher than 18th. Putting on the tiny but tricky Riviera greens is a big key to winning; can Singh conquer the weakest part of his game for four days? It's always risky to pass on Singh when he's in fine form -- he nearly won at Pebble Beach last week, as you know -- but I'll live dangerously and leave him on the bench.
Mickelson ran second at this event last year but otherwise it's been a tricky stop for him, with four trunk slams in eight starts. Imada has three mediocre turns here (65, cut, cut), and he's also got the hip issue from earlier in the month. Stricker hasn't cracked the Top 40 in four L.A. appearances.
Group 3 Pick: Jerry Kelly
Other Options: Kenny Perry, John Mallinger, Kevin Na, Charles Warren
Flat-stick magic is certainly a key element on these greens, and that suits Kelly just fine, one of the putting wizards in the field. He's cashed in seven of his last eight stops at Riviera, including a decent 22nd last year. I'm always partial to guys who can shave strokes around the green, so Kelly was a fairly easy pick for me here.
Perry has made eight cuts in his last nine Northern Trust starts, but he hasn't really contended since his second-place finish in 2005. Otherwise, there's no past performance to go off in this pool, as Na (33, cut, cut, cut), Mallinger (cut), and Warren (CUT, 45, CUT) are still feeling the place out.
Group 4 Pick: Jim Furyk
Other Options: Stuart Appleby, Anthony Kim, Mike Weir, Ben Crane
The head probably should lean towards Weir, who won this event back in 2003 and 2004. His game looked sharp last weekend, and obviously this is a track that suits the left-hander's eye.
But given a chance to take Furyk as a Group 4 selection, I'm not turning away. He's cashed seven straight times at the Northern Open, including a third last year and a 12th in 2006, and he's got the patience to deal with the quirky course. More importantly, he's got the iron game. You have my blessing to roll with Weir if you want, but I'll stick to the right side of the road and bet that Furyk has really gotten comfortable here.
Appleby finished third in 2004 but he's done little in the three years since. Kim's got just one stop on the track but it was a flashy ninth-place run last season. Crane missed the cut last year and he's never cracked the Top 50 in four turns at Riviera.
Group 5 Pick: Charles Howell
Other Options: Kevin Sutherland, Troy Matteson, Steve Marino
Howell might be the easiest fantasy pick of the week, off last year's win here and two other snappy finishes (second in 2003, sixth in 2002). He's an unabashed fan of Riviera, and I want to dial up players when they hit a friendly track. Next question.
Sutherland often plays well in February (remember his match-play stunner a few years ago?), and he's made 10 of 12 cuts here, including a seventh-place showing in 2005. Still, I have to feel Howell has more shots and more upside in his bag.
Matteson's never made a cut here and Marino is a first-time starter, so they're hard to get behind this week. Dudley Hart (flu) dropped out Monday, so keep him out of your L.A. plans.
Group 6 Pick: Corey Pavin
Other Options: Bill Haas, Pat Perez, Nick Watney, Brandt Snedeker
The mere mention of Riviera conjures up the image of Pavin, a UCLA product who's done some of his best work over these grounds. Pavin won the event twice in the mid-90s and he's continued to do well this decade, grabbing five straight checks inside the Top 40. He's no longer a star on tour, but he's coming off a solid showing at Pebble Beach and this is the perfect course for him.
Perez is my second choice in the pool, another SoCal player who's found the track to his liking (six straight checks, including an eight-place run last season). Snedeker is making his first start at the Northern Open; Haas has two checks in two starts (22, 51); Watney missed the cut last year after running 19th in 2006.
Rest of the Field: What, you need me to tell you Adam Scott is a star? He didn't contend in L.A. last year, but he won this event in 2006, and he ran second in 2005 . . . Padraig Harrington has just one Northern Trust play on his card, but it was a steady seventh-place finish last year (struggling on the weekend a bit after an opening-round 63). I'm a little surprised we haven't seen him at this stop more often, because the course seems to fit his game . . . Perhaps my girlfriend would appreciate a Justin Rose selection (I'll tell her on Thursday), but he's yet to get inside the Top 35 in four starts here . . . Sergio Garcia has found Southern California to his liking, with four healthy checks in five starts at Riviera including a sixth-place finish last season. But he's been struggling with his putter lately, and that's enough to get me off the scent as he heads to these tricky greens . . . Putting is seldom an issue with Aaron Baddeley, and he contended here in 2005 and 2007, so dial him up in all formats . . . I'll close with another Australian, Robert Allenby; he won this event in 2001, and he's had two near-misses since. My I-Pod shuffle offered Men At Work's "Overkill" as I was browsing Allenby's track record here, and I'm not going to turn my back on a nudge like that. May your L.A. Stories be happy ones this week.
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