A look back at the inaugural FedExCup

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As we begin the 2008 season, it is worth looking back at the 2007 season to see what can be learned about the FedExCup points system. Here are some things that stand out.

The 2007 PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup showed how important seedings are, since only those players who had great finishes were able to move up very much in the standings. The points structure for this year's Playoffs isn't finalized yet, but it is unlikely to be dramatically different than last year, so regular season play is going to once again be critical to players' final FedExCup standing (with one exception -- see the Footnote).

Here's what it took to get a good seed:

Roughly speaking, getting into the 31 to 70 range took about 8 Top 25s and half as many Top 10s with no 1st, 2nd or 3rd place finishes. Obviously, one very high finish mitigates the need for several Top 25s. Similarly, getting into the 16 to 30 range took about 10 Top 25s and half as many Top 10s, but at least one of those Top 10s probably needed to be in the Top 3. Getting a top 15 seed took about the same number of Top 10s and Top 25s as the 16 to 30 range, but one of those Top 10s needed to be a win. (Only Steve Stricker and Sergio Garcia, seeded 12th and 13th, respectively, didn't have a win in the regular season. Stricker had two seconds, a fourth and a fifth, and Garcia had two seconds, a third and a fifth).

Buried in the data above is the value of "one extra" good finish, particularly for players outside the Top 30. The difference between being seeded 70th (meaning the player would need to play well to ensure being eligible for the BMW Championship) and being seeded 38th (so one good Playoff finish could get the player into THE TOUR Championship) was only 1,700 points -- the value of a single 3rd place regular season finish. Here is what an "extra" 3rd place finish would have hypothetically meant for various players in the 2007 regular season:

Being in the Top 30 last year doesn't guarantee getting in this year. In the past 10 years, only 54% of the qualifiers for THE TOUR Championship in any given year have qualified again in the following year. This percentage is even lower recently - only 12 players who qualified for THE 2005 TOUR Championship also qualified in 2006. Last year was unusual because of the new FedExCup points structure, but once again, only 12 players who qualified for THE 2006 TOUR Championship qualified again in 2007.

Being eligible for the season-opening Mercedes-Benz Championship is even less of a guarantee for getting into the traditional season-ending TOUR Championship. Over the past 10 years, less than 40% of the winners from the previous year have been eligible for THE TOUR Championship the next year. Last year, 11 of the 36 winners from 2006 were in THE 2007 TOUR Championship.

Similarly, getting a head start on the season by being eligible for the Mercedes-Benz Championship didn't necessarily translate into FedExCup success in 2007. The average FedExCup finish in 2007 for a 2006 tournament winner was 62nd. Here is where all the 2006 winners finished in the FedExCup standings in 2007:

For your amusement, here is a list of last year's top points-getters within the group of players with the same initial letter of their first or last name (e.g. the highest player on the FedExCup points list whose first name begins with A was Aaron Baddeley. The highest on the list whose last name begins with A was Woody Austin).

If your first name is Quincy, Umberto, Xavier or Yves, or your last name is Xanadu or Young -- and you can make a cut on the PGA TOUR -- you have a chance to lead a category of this points list. If your name is, say, Thomas Wilson, forget about it.

There are only a few players with the same first and last initial. Points leaders in 2007 in that category were:

The toughest "field" is the double-Bs, with past PGA TOUR tournament winners Bart Bryant and Bob Burns, along with Briny Baird in the running against Brian Bateman.