Fantasy Insider: The 2009 PGA TOUR season

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Sergio Garcia could be ready to win a major after capturing THE PLAYERS Championship and finishing T2 at the PGA in '08.

It doesn't matter that there's ice and slush piled on my front steps in Michigan, the 2009 PGA TOUR season is here.

I'm thrilled to be back discussing fantasy golf with you and I'm really looking forward to breaking down the Yahoo! golf game that's partnering with PGATOUR.COM this season. If you haven't played Yahoo's game before, give it a shot; it takes a minute to learn but seasons to master, and I look forward to discussing our picks and pans for the game every week in this space.

In addition to the Yahoo! game, I'm also looking forward to my long-standing fantasy golf auction league, a super-competitive group of 12 to 14 owners that's entering its 10th year of competition. Our annual auction is today and I'm going to let you have a peek at my notebook, some of the players I'm targeting and avoiding. Have a read if you're looking for a primer for the fantasy season as you hit the draft or auction table. No matter what your preferred format is, if you're watching golf with a fantasy tack this season, I want to help you. Quiet please, season preview on the tee.

Guys I'm Targeting

Sergio Garcia: He was an eyelash away from being the Player of the Year last season, a major breakthrough campaign that didn't get proper attention in all circles. First, you had the stirring comeback win at THE PLAYERS Championship. Give Garcia one or two shots back and he wins the PGA Championship, rather than settling for a tie for second. And he had plenty of game left for the post-season, losing in playoffs at both The Barclays and THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola. His iron play has never been better, his confidence never higher. This is the year you want to go the extra buck on Sergio.

Phil Mickelson: He's gone 11 majors without winning one, but he did better on the big stage last year then most realize (T5 Masters, T18 U.S. Open, T19 British, T7 PGA). He's still a year and a half away from his 40th birthday. I'm betting on a big season, and in a funny way, I think Tiger's return will help him refocus, too.

Aaron Baddeley: There's something reassuring about having arguably the TOUR's best putter on your side, and while Baddeley's major resume from the last two years doesn't jump out at you (four cuts made, two top-20s), it represents progress from his earlier tries (don't forget he was the 54-hole leader at Oakmont in 2007 before that disastrous final round). The wrestling seems to be over for the Baddeley name but there's still a level for him to climb.

Luke Donald: Wrist surgery wiped out half of his 2008 season and Donald's haul over the last few years hasn't matched the lofty expectations set for him. Sounds like another post-hype discount to me. Unfortunately, I'm unlikely to get a break with my hometown guys; a handful of them are Northwestern grads, and they'll be alert when Donald's name comes up.

Ken Duke: He couldn't do a thing for about three months in 2008. Then he caught fire, grabbing 21 checks in 23 starts to finish the year (including 13 top-25s). I'm a sucker for consistency, and I love under-the-radar guys who I won't have to fight for with my wallet. Here's a great auction name to target.

Robert Allenby: At first glance, you look at last year's amazing haul and you figure, no way he can improve on it (27 cuts in a row after the Sony Open in Hawaii, including nine top 10s, 17 top 25s; second in GIR and eighth in scoring). Ah, but there's the one thing missing -- a victory. Stunning as it may be, Allenby hasn't won on the PGA TOUR since 2001, but that's going to come crumbling down, and quickly, if he hits the links this year with anything close to the confidence he had in 2008. Some might hedge against this career year, I'll line up beside it.

Jim Furyk: Here's another guy who was competitive throughout 2008 but never got in the winner's circle; it's just the second time over 11 seasons Furyk didn't get a handshake and an oversized check. Here's a very safe play, and the mild step back might get you a reasonable price, for once, on Furyk.

Hunter Mahan: There's a post-hype price available, as all the excited Mahan investors from last year probably won't be back for the chase. Mahan still looks like a budding star to me.

Richard Sterne: Keep the South African in mind when The Masters rolls around; he was 25th at Augusta National last year and he's already punched his ticket back. Very quietly, he's looming at No. 43 on the Official World Golf Ranking, pushed up by his win at the South African Open last month. He's got a poor record in the majors other than the one on Magnolia Lane, but he's still just 27 and there's definitely sleeper value here.

Sleepers and Breakthrough Players

Matthew Goggin: This guy has breakthrough year written all over him. A couple of seconds and a couple of thirds last season gets the ball rolling, and I love the fact that you can't find a weakness on his stat profile -- he's got a respectable rank in pretty much everything. The first win on TOUR is always the hardest. If Goggin gets over the hurdle early in the year, watch out.

Ian Poulter: He impressed the heck out of everyone at the British Open and he played sharply at the Ryder Cup, too. It's never been a question of talent or confidence, but sometimes those things seem to get in each other's way. This is a gut-feel pick more than anything, but I see Poulter taking another step forward in 2009.

Steve Marino: He reminds me a lot of Goggin, a player who's putting together a balanced game and looks poised to win. Marino made 27 cuts last year and had 13 top 25s, including six top 10s, and consistency like that will always get my attention (and my plus-1 bid).

Greg Owen: If there's anyone who deserves the promotion from the Nationwide Tour, it's this guy. You might be impressed by his eighth-place rank in driving distance and his ninth-place finish in GIR last year, but that's just the appetizer; Owen ranked first in a whopping five primary stat categories (birdie average, sand save percentage, total driving, all-around ranking and of course the ultimate moneymaker, scoring average). Keep in mind Owen was a solid pro on the TOUR in 2005 (59th on the money list) and 2006 (69th money list) and he had seven strong years on the European Tour prior to that, so he's not going to be intimidated. He's got the game to compete out here again.

Ryan Palmer: He played well from the middle of July onward (culminating in a win at the Ginn sur Mer Classic in November) and without a lot of fanfare. Palmer finished the season first in birdie average and second in putting. Budding confidence, the ability to go low, a smooth roll on the greens; sure, we can do something with that.

The Buzz Babies

Anthony Kim, Camillo Villegas: They're highlighted on your cheat-sheet, eh? Join the club -- these might be the two biggest buzz names on TOUR not named "Eldrick." There's no way you'll land either guy for a friendly price, just know that going in. And if they're not a part of your auction plan, nominate them out of the gate and watch the dollars fly.

Guys I'm Avoiding

I'm not going to take the easy way out and avoid the big names in this section -- I don't see how that helps anyone. There's a lot of talent in the names below, but no fantasy guts, no fantasy glory.

Charles Howell III: He's routinely buried in the driving-accuracy and putts-per-round stats, which says a lot. And the Howell owner in my hometown auction never comes back and grabs him the following year. I think that says a lot, too.

Scott Verplank: He's always going to be at a severe disadvantage on the longer courses given his modest driving distance. Plus, he's coming off his worst season since 1997 and he turns 45 this summer. The fan in me will always root for Verplank (his win at the EDS Byron Nelson two years ago was one of the images of the season), but I don't envision him on my roster.

Kenny Perry: This one should be obvious; career years at age 48 simply don't repeat. And Perry doesn't have the Ryder Cup carrot to motivate him this time around.

Vijay Singh: It's so tempting to chase last year's banner season, but keep in mind he turns 46 in six weeks and you have to wonder how much longer he can keep the fire constantly burning. If anyone on TOUR has a just reason to take the foot off the pedal and relax a little bit it's this guy. Even though that doesn't sound like the Singh we've come to know and appreciate over all these years, it's still a good fantasy policy to be a little skeptical of anyone coming off a monster year in their mid-40s. Unless you really like the price offered on Singh, let someone else cut the check.

J.B. Holmes: I'm generally reluctant to get fantasy-invested in any player who's game is centered around power and distance, though I have to admit, Holmes played better from August-on (Ryder Cup included) than I expected. He's made eight starts in majors and doesn't have a strong one yet, though he did grab two checks inside the top 30 last year (Masters, PGA).

Stewart Cink: He finally broke the winless drought with the victory at the Travelers Championship and he was one of the TOUR's most consistent players, but fantasy owners are usually left wanting more from Cink, who contends an awful lot but seems to have trouble closing. Consider his scoring rank by round last season: 25th before the cut, 47th on Saturday, 75th on Sunday. I got a good price on Cink last year in my hometown auction and enjoyed the value, but I don't expect that I'll be double-dipping this time around.

Adam Scott: Forget winning a major, he hasn't even contended in one since the 2006 PGA. He does have a TOUR win for six seasons running (if you give him the rain-shortened, unofficial Nissan Open win in 2005), but here's another super talent who always seems to be more tease than results. I need a show-me season before I get fully invested.

One More Word Before We Close

Tiger Woods: You know what to do with this cat, just get him (it matters not that he's still a few months away). Welcome back, big guy. I know I sure missed you, especially in September.