Securing an early top-10 spot is crucial in FedExCup race

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Geoff Ogilvy could lose his position at the top of the FedExCup standings if one of 12 players win at THE PLAYERS.

The calendar says we're barely a third of the way through 2009. Only one of golf's four major championships has been held -- Angel Cabrera won a tense Masters in a three-way playoff -- and there's more drama on the way this week at THE PLAYERS Championship, the PGA TOUR's signature event.

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So, as they like to say, there's a lot of golf to be played before they hand out $10 million in September to the third winner of the FedExCup.

Yet, if recent history is a guide, a lot of meaningful golf already has been played when it comes to who will be the third player to earn golf's first eight-figure prize.

That's because a check of the first two mid-points of the FedExCup seasons revealed a constant: The first half of the season was just as important as the second half when it came to positioning in the FedExCup standings.

To wit: Five of the players who held down the top 10 spots at the midway point of the last two seasons maintained those positions until the competition was completed at THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola.

In 2007, the players who remained in the top 10 were: Tiger Woods (eventual winner), Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, Mark Calcavecchia and Aaron Baddeley. In 2008, the top-10 holdovers were Mickelson, Anthony Kim, Singh (eventual winner), K.J. Choi and Justin Leonard. And the number easily would have been six last year had Woods not undergone season-ending knee surgery after winning the U.S. Open in June (when he held down the top spot).

So this portends well for the current top 10 in the FedExCup standings at the 2009 mid-point: Geoff Ogilvy, Mickelson, Sean O'Hair, Nick Watney, Kenny Perry, Zach Johnson, Paul Casey, Brian Gay, Steve Stricker and Woods.

This is no coincidence. The folks who set up the current points system, which has been modified each of the three years to try and get the best result, relied on two components: Placing a great importance on winning, as well as being in the top 10 in the point standings entering the four playoff events.

Just as players recite the mantra of trying to position themselves to have a chance to win a tournament Sunday on the back nine, they also are starting to realize the importance of staying in the top 10 of the FedExCup standings, or close, throughout the season.

Of course, sometimes all it takes is one good week for a player to make that move, especially if that strong play occurs at the majors, THE PLAYERS or one of the World Golf Championships tournaments that award more points because of the importance of the event.

At THE PLAYERS, for instance, 12 players have a chance of overtaking Ogilvy for the top spot if they win and earn the 600 points. Moreover, no less than 79 players have a mathematical probability of moving into the top 10 with a victory this week.

Yes, there's a lot of golf to be played. But it's going to take some solid golf.

The top names who trail on the list don't have much more time to make their move. That goes for defending FedExCup champion Singh, who's 132nd on the list after undergoing knee surgery this year and playing only nine events, as well as defending PLAYERS champ Sergio Garcia, who's 136th. Garcia hasn't played enough rounds this year -- he's played in only five stroke-play events -- to get ranked in the TOUR's individual statistical categories.

Staying near the top 10 is more important this year because of several revisions. For one, the points won't be reset this year until the final event, THE TOUR Championship (they were reset at the start of the four playoff events the first two years). For another, the TOUR has devised a system that guarantees the top five players entering THE TOUR Championship are guaranteed a victory if they win at East Lake. That was a necessary move after Woods and Singh virtually clinched the FedExCup title the previous two years before THE TOUR Championship because they already had won a pair of the playoff events.

Not only will we have at least five players with a chance going into the FedExCup's final event, but players in the Nos. 6-10 spots also could win the $10 million bonus, depending upon how the players in front of them perform. That's another change to increase the final-week drama.

So, the jockeying won't stop until the last putt drops.

That's good news for some of the marquee names who are lagging behind: Kim (No. 43), Ernie Els (No. 46), Stewart Cink (No. 54), Choi (No. 57), Robert Allenby (No. 60), Adam Scott (No. 61), Padraig Harrington (No. 78), Trevor Immelman (No. 91) and Stuart Appleby (No. 101).

Conversely, some of the lesser-known players such as Dustin Johnson (No. 12), Y.E. Yang (No. 18), John Merrick (No. 23), Kevin Na (No. 25), Charlie Wi (No. 30), Jason Dufner (No. 39) and Jeff Klauk (No. 40) have positioned themselves nicely for a career-best payday.

Another change in the system this year will lessen some of the volatility during the playoffs. After too-little movement in the 2007 playoffs, some players complained there was too much movement last year. A player can still make a late move this season; it just won't be as radical as before.

That adds to the importance of a player staying near the FedExCup lead throughout the 37 regular-season events. It's not like an NBA game where you try and keep it close, then win in the final two minutes.

Hey, for $10 million, why not make 'em earn it?