Jun. 15, 2009
By Mike Vitti, PGATOUR.COM
EDITOR'S NOTE: Officially, Mike Vitti is the Director of Research and Development in the TOUR's Marketing Department. Unofficially, he's a stats guru who analyzes all kinds of data from our ShotLink numbers.
Vitti will size up the field each week and provide his top 10 players going into the tournament, based on factors such as the player's strengths, the course setup, recent performances, etc.
High rough, fast greens and narrow fairways are the norm for U.S. Open setups, and this year's event at Bethpage Black in New York will not be any different. Due to the slick putting surfaces, mastery of the greens is always cited as the deciding factor at the U.S. Open. But that's obvious and could be said about any event on the PGA TOUR.
The other factor that is mentioned ad infinitum is driving accuracy, but in this case it may not be as important as it seems. The driving accuracy rate for the field at the U.S. Open is usually between 50 and 60 percent for the week, and the host courses usually rank among the lowest driving accuracy rates of all of the courses played on the PGA TOUR.
The winners of the U.S. Open since 2000 all reflect this average, as they've only managed a 62 percent driving accuracy rate as a group. Not one of the last three winners has had a rate higher than 57 percent. If the winners do not fare much better than the rest of the field in finding the fairway, where should you look when assessing the U.S. Open field?
With such a long course, the big hitters will have a definite advantage, but they will also need to be able to get up and down after punching out of the rough. Look for players that rank high in driving distance; players that are also high in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards; and, of course, good putters will always have a chance.
| Power Rankings: U.S. Open |
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Tiger WOODS |
The defending champ has only finished outside of the top 20 once at a U.S. Open since turning pro. Woods, who won the 2002 U.S. Open at Bethpage, has the length to handle the course and is currently 11th in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards. |
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Paul CASEY |
Casey has top-20 finishes in six of eight starts in the U.S. this year, as well as in seven of his last 12 major starts. Ranked 25th in driving distance, he will be fine off the tee and, at 19th in putts per greens in regulation, he can also handle the greens. |
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Geoff OGILVY |
The 2006 champion, Ogilvy also finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open in 2008. He has not missed the cut in 12 starts on TOUR this season and enters the event ranked in the top 40 in driving distance, scrambling, and total putting. |
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Phil MICKELSON |
He's placed in the top 10 seven times at the U.S. Open, including four runner-up finishes. Here's an interesting stat -- while Mickelson is ranked seventh in par-3 birdie percentage, he's 116th in par-3 scoring average. |
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Tim CLARK |
Clark, ranked 148th in driving distance, will be challenged by Bethpage's length. However, he is third in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards, sixth in scrambling and seventh in total putting. He also has three top-20 finishes in six U.S. Open starts. |
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Ernie ELS |
A two-time U.S. Open champion, Els has seven total top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open. He tied for 24th in 2002 at Bethpage, enters this season ranked 32nd in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards and is ninth in scrambling on TOUR. |
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Luke DONALD |
Donald's length from the tee could hurt him a bit at Bethpage, but he's ranked first in both proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards and total putting. He is also ranked high in scrambling from distances greater than 30 yards. |
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Steve STRICKER |
He has six top-20s in 13 starts at the U.S. Open, plus has top-10 finishes in two of his last three major starts. He's excellent from the 50-125 range -- he's ranked fourth in proximity to the hole from this distance -- and currently leads the TOUR in scrambling. |
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Robert ALLENBY |
In the last eight years he's missed the U.S. Open cut in odd-numbered years and had top-20 finishes in evens, including a T12 at Bethpage in 2002. Though this is an odd-numbered year, he is ranked in the top 35 in both scrambling and driving distance. |
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Charlie WI |
Wi has only made one major start at the '08 PGA, but he did tie for ninth there. Not a long hitter, Wi may have some trouble with the course length, but he is tied with Luke Donald for the best proximity-to-the-hole average from 50-125 yards and is 16th in total putting. |
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