The Fantasy Insider: Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Time to mix some iced tea and lemonade together and drink a toast to the king of golf, Arnold Palmer. Aggressive play was a Palmer staple for decades, and whoever wins this week will have to go it the same way; significant distance is mandatory here, and the better ball strikers have a leg up over the putting specialists.
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PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Golf -- here are the rules in a nutshell:
We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List.
From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well.
The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
A-List Selections
Tiger Woods (Round 1 starter): He's won five times on this course (including 2008), and while Tiger's putter wasn't in form two weeks back, his tee-to-green game was outstanding, and that's a winning formula at Bay Hill (where length and ballstriking matter more than the flat stick). I realize we're 20 percent into the Woods allotment with another play here, but I can't in good conscience leave him on my bench.
Kenny Perry: His driving and ballstriking have been sublime for most of the year, and he knows how to get aroundBay Hill (win in 2005, second two starts prior). I'd like a mulligan on my Perry bid price from January; he's not showing any drop-off whatsoever from his dynamic 2008 season.
Other A-List Options: Stewart Cink merits consideration here off back class (three Top-10 finishes this decade), but until he starts striking the ball a little better, I can't pick him over slam-dunks like Woods and Perry. Cink currently stands 161st in driving accuracy and his middle irons have been a problem . . . Anthony Kim's star power is hard to look past, but it's his Bay Hill debut and he's 109th in total driving. I'll wait for a different opportunity.
Vijay Singh always has this tournament circled on his calendar -- he's been here 16 straight seasons -- and he's generally one of the heavy favorites (four straight Top-10s, including the 2007 win). A ball-striking challenge where putting is de-emphasized, that's obviously right up Singh's alley. But with the question marks surrounding Vijay's health (he recently had knee surgery and withdrew in Tampa last week), I don't have the stomach to dial him up in this spot, impressive track record to the side.
Jim Furyk has an ordinary track record at Bay Hill (31, 20, 23, 8, 47, 36, cut, cut), and obviously he's someone you look to on shorter and tighter courses. He's certainly good enough to play four rounds and cash a decent check, but let's wait until he's a horse for the course . . . Padraig Harrington returns to Bay Hill after a long absence; he missed the cut in 2000 and finished T50 two years prior to that. That's not enough to get a nod in this space.
Everyone knows what a super ball striker Robert Allenby is, and he's got a pair of Top-5 runs in his last five visits to Bay Hill, albeit he's got a pair of trunk slams in the mix as well. If Allenby can putt a little better than we saw three weeks back, he can contend again here.
Justin Rose has four straight cashes at Bay Hill, although he wasn't really in contention until last year's tie for eighth. He hasn't brought his best game to the States thus far this year, sitting 200th in total driving and 194th in GIR.
B-List Selections
Sean O'Hair (Round 1 starter): He's quickly learned the ins and outs of Bay Hill (third last year, 14th two seasons back) and I'm willing to write off last week's missed cut to the pressures of being the defending champ. O'Hair sits 40th in total driving and 17th in GIR, and that puts him on my team again.
Nick Watney (Round 1 starter): He's probably been the breakthrough player of the year to this point, grabbing the win at the Buick Invitational, the second at the WGC-CA Championship, four other Top-25 finishes, and seven straight checks in all. His best showing in three starts at Bay Hill was last year's T21 finish, but this isn't the same player thus far in 2009. Keep using Watney until we have a solid reason not to. The distance of Bay Hill won't be a problem (Watney stands sixth in driving distance), and he's putting plenty of red on the card (fifth in par breakers).
Chad Campbell: Here's a clear horse for the course, a notable ball striker who's got a career of success over the Bay Hill layout (nothing worse than T22 over the last five stops, including a win in 2004). And Campbell's putting hasn't been as much of an issue the last few years; he's currently 63rd in putting average this year, after placing 42nd in that stat in 2008.
Tom Lehman: Three excellent rounds in Tampa tell us the elbow pain is finally gone, and Lehman knows his way around Bay Hill (T8, T5 the last two seasons). I'm going to make Lehman show me one good round before I put him into play, but I'm confident he'll be a story into the weekend.
Other B-List Options: David Toms has his share of respectable finishes here (58, 18, 19, 17, 36, cut, 22), but his last stop on the grounds came in 2001, and his skill set (precision over power) doesn't ideally fit what's needed at Bay Hill.
Davis Love has collected seven Top-10s at Bay Hill over the years, but the last one came in 2000. He's nonetheless a safe play off his 2009 form; he's made five cuts in six stroke-play events, never finishing lower than T35.
Zach Johnson pocked a couple of Top-10s at Arnie's Place in the middle of the decade, but he hasn't been inside the Top 40 in his last three visits . . . Stephen Ames has four Top-10 checks on his Bay Hill resume and he's been striking the ball better of late, though it's odd to see him just 78th in scoring average thus far in 2009. He's closing in on his best game but let's wait another week on him . . . Mark Calcavecchia has 14 checks in 17 starts at Bay Hill but he hasn't seen the Top 30 since 1998 and he's coming off a missed cut at the Transitions Championship.
It's always great to see Fred Couples back on the course, and he's got a chance to do something here. He's made six straight checks at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, including a T8 in 2005 and a T15 in 2004, and he's still one heckuva ball when his best game finds him . . . Give Boo Weekly a long look as you fill out your roster. He's quickly gotten comfortable at Bay Hill (21, 14), and he's got the long game to content. He enters this week 40th in total driving and 41st in GIR.
I'm not really sure what to make of Rod Pampling in this spot; he won at Bay Hill in 2006 but he hasn't made the cut since, and he didn't find his best game at the Transitions Championship last week (72-74) even though he was a very logical selection on paper.
Carl Pettersson hasn't cashed a six-digit check all season and he missed his second cut of the year in Tampa after a couple of 73s. I know he's too talented not to figure it out eventually, but I can't give him a ticket punch at Bay Hill, despite his respectable record here (8, 42, 15, cut, cut, 25) . . . Mathew Goggin has a game that should translate to Bay Hill (first in total driving, 19th in scoring), and he was sharp as a tack down the stretch in Tampa. He's yet to do anything notable in two starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (cut, 64), but it's just a matter of time for this talented Aussie . . . It's surprising to see Brandt Snedeker struggling as he is (five missed cuts already), but maybe he can get his groove back at Bay Hill. He's finished T14 and T22 here the last two seasons.
C-List Selections
Retief Goosen (Round 1 starter): He finally got some confidence on the greens last week to go with his ball striking, and he's got plenty of back class at Bay Hill (14, 18, 48, 4, cut, 15, 34 over his last seven starts). Just because Goosen is an obvious and popular selection in this spot doesn't mean you shouldn't roll with him.
Charles Howell: He's got six straight cuts at Bay Hill including a T8 three starts back, and he looked close to a breakout at Tampa last week. Given the collective inexperience that most of the C-List offers this week, I'm fine to spend another Howell play as my Goose insurance.
Others C-List Options: I don't need much steering to use Ian Poulter, anywhere, but he's got four starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and they don't really inspire confidence (48, cut, cut, cut) . . . Rocco Mediate has two missed cuts in his last three Bay Hill stops but he stayed the full week in each of his eight starts prior to that, and some of the hits have been healthy once (T2 in 2007, T3 in 2002). If his body cooperates, Mediate has the knowledge and game to do something fun again.
Ben Crane cashed a Top-10 check in his debut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but the two starts since then haven't been as fun 59, 60) and he didn't look comfortable down the stretch in Tampa (68-74-73-76).
Louis Oosthuizen is an interesting gambit if you don't mind trying a first-time starter at the event. He showed his mettle with a T20 at the WGC-CA Championship, and you don't get into the Top 50 of the World Golf Rankings without a ton of talent . . . Scott Verplank's game wouldn't seem like a natural fit for Bay Hill but he's done just fine, thanks, over the years (five Top-20 finishes over 10 starts). He's getting it done off the tee this season (11th in total driving), but we need to see more red on the card (91st in par breakers).
Last Week: It was a funky little tournament down in Tampa; four of our selections missed the cut, but the strong play of Steve Stricker (T4), Charlie Wi (T4) and Kenny Perry (T17) helped break the fall. The end result was 160 points and a slot gain of 252; things would have been nicer had Wi or Stricker broken into the Top 3 and brought home some bonus points.
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