The Fantasy Insider: Zurich Classic of New Orleans

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Apr. 21, 2009
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider

It's always a blast to spend a week of fun down at the Big Easy, but picking winners at TPC Louisiana isn't so simple -- we only have three years of data to consider at the new course venue (2005, 2007, 2008). Get some Cajun food in your stomach and give your lucky beads a toss as we look to find some naturals for New Orleans.

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Last week: It was a funny week for most of the fantasy nation, as a host of surprising names took the Verizon Heritage by storm and kept points off our sheet. Seven of the eight golfers suggested in this space made the cut, but no one was able to break through into the top 10. Boo Weekley was our best play with a tie for 13th, but, unfortunately, I had him on the bench for his closing 68. And so it goes.

PGATOUR.com Fantasy Golf -- here are the rules in a nutshell:

We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List.

From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well.

The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.

You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.

A-List Selections
JOHN MERRICK (Round 1 starter): He's already bagged three top-10 finishes this year (did you notice that 66 at the Masters on Sunday?), and he knows what to do at the Zurich Classic, finishing T7 and T18 in his last two visits. Merrick is a fantastic player off the tee (26th in total driving), he's eighth in total birdies, and he enters this event with some confidence (a T6 at the Masters will do that for you). Sign me up.
TIM WILKINSON: He's coming off his strongest event of the year (a T6 at the Verizon Heritage), and he was a smash last season in his Zurich Classic debut (finishing a solo third, including a blistering 67 on Sunday). Wilkinson gets high marks for his straight driving and creative play around the green, and while he doesn't wow you with a lot of other stats, I'm always impressed with players who can consistently score better than their numerical profile might suggest. Get Wilkinson on your sleeper list for New Orleans.
Other A-List Options:
• It's hard to justify sitting Kenny Perry at any event right now, but he's been just ordinary at TPC Louisiana (T23, T66), and he's only finished in the top 20 once in 10 stops at this tournament. I don't expect the disappointing conclusion to the Masters to affect Perry much, but I'd feel better about his bounce-back chances if he were heading to a course that's tailored to his game. This doesn't look like that place.
• Mike Weir is pretty much a safe play almost any week, but we have to consider that he hasn't really contended since his second-place check at Pebble Beach in February, and he's making his first start over this course. Let's wait for a better spot to use the amiable left-hander
• Justin Rose has been a little bit of a fantasy tease on this side of the pond this year; he's had plenty of solid outings but nothing better than T20 yet, and given the world of ability he has, we always have to feel like more is available. His one go at the TPC Louisiana track was solid enough, a T17 back in 2005
• K.J. Choi won this event back in 2002 on a different course, but he's yet to test his game over TPC Louisiana. Most weeks, I'm looking for an excuse to get Choi in there, but he's on a streak of three consecutive missed cuts, so I'm a little gun shy at the moment
• Steve Elkington was involved in the designing of the course, so it's no surprise that he's fared well at TPC Louisiana (T10 last year, T28 in 2007). But picking him this week also requires a leap of faith -- the veteran has yet to finish inside the top 50 at any event in 2009
• If you want to send it in on John Senden, I'll endorse the pick. He grabbed a T12 check here last season, and he's got plenty of support on the stat profile (seventh in total driving, fifth in GIR, 19th in scoring average).
B-List Selections
NICK WATNEY (Round 1 starter): His first tour victory came on the TPC Louisiana grounds, albeit Watney hasn't cracked the top 40 in his other two starts on the track. Even if Watney didn't have a victory here, I'd still be looking to use him; how can you bench someone with eight top-25 finishes in nine starts? We know Watney can pound the ball off the tee (eighth in distance) and get some red on the scorecard (seventh in par breakers), but even when he's in trouble on a hole, there's no need to panic (he's 14th in scrambling). Go ahead and pick against him, I dare you.
WOODY AUSTIN (Round 1 starter): The switch to TPC Louisiana has certainly agreed with Austin; he's got three outstanding finishes over this track (T4, T18, T5). He's been quietly steady in 2009 -- he's yet to miss a cut -- and he's also entering this week with some momentum off his best check of the season (T11 at the Verizon Heritage). The timing looks right for Austin this week.
STEVE STRICKER: He's playing so well right now that a 2009 win seems inevitable; he's been sixth or better in four events, and he's cashed seven checks inside the Top 25. Stricker's currently ninth in birdie average, 14th in GIR and seventh in putting -- that's a portable game that almost guarantees contention, anywhere, anytime. He's surprisingly missed a couple of cuts at TPC Louisiana, but he also ran 11th in 2007, so he's also had some success here.
TIM PETROVIC: He's quickly gotten comfortable over the TPC Louisiana layout, winning the inaugural run over the ground in 2005, then finishing T7 and T24 the last two seasons. He's not in the midst of his best PGA TOUR season (six missed cuts), but Petrovic may have turned the corner with last week's excellent play at Harbour Town (68-70-69-70, en route to an eighth-place finish). I'm not going to roll with Petrovic on Thursday, but I feel good having him as a relief option on a course he clearly likes.
Other B-List Options:
• Charley Hoffman has been a little off his game over his last two starts (T52 at the Shell Houston Open, 75th at Verizon Heritage), and he doesn't offer a notable track record at this event. He finished T66 in New Orleans two years back, then missed the cut last season
• Rory Sabbatini currently sits ninth in putting and 18th in par breakers, and he's the type of player who's very dangerous when he gets some early momentum going. But he'll be spotting local knowledge to the field -- he hasnt been to the tournament since 2000, and he's yet to compete over the TPC Louisiana track
• It's been a feast-or-famine track for Bubba Watson; he grabbed a T5 check in New Orleans two years ago but couldnt get anything going last year (73-69-75-72, en route to a T70 finish). Everyone knows about Watson's prodigious length off the tee; as always, it will come down to how precise he is with his irons, and how quickly he can get comfortable on the greens
• David Toms will be a sentimental favorite with the galleries this week -- he starred at LSU, and he won this event in 2001 -- but he's yet to establish a track record at TPC Louisiana. He missed the cut in 2005, and he finished T44 two seasons back
• Stephen Ames has cashed three top-10 checks at the Zurich Classic, but he's yet to make a start on the TPC Louisiana track. It's not hard to build a case for Ames looking at the stats; he's 18th in putting, 17th in birdie average and 11th in all-around ranking, but it's always difficult to anticipate how a player will adjust to a new course
• Andres Romero needed one round to get comfortable in his Zurich Classic debut last season -- a 73 on Thursday. After that, it was all systems go, as he fired a 69-65-68 en route to a one-shot victory. Romero's always going to be long off the tee, but his inconsistent work on the greens (160th in putting) and with the irons (118th GIR) makes me a little wary about returning to him here.
C-List Selections
JEFF MAGGERT (Round 1 starter): I've always had a soft spot in my handicapping heart for this consistent veteran, and we know Maggert has a good feel for what works at TPC Louisiana (T23 last year, T11 in 2007). Maggert's had more trunk slams than cashes this season, but he did finish T21 at the Verizon Heritage, so he's got some momentum to build off of. I know most of my opponents won't be playing the Maggert card in this spot, but I feel like taking a shot with the sneaky-reliable veteran.
PETER LONARD: His 2009 stat profile isn't going to suggest Lonard here, but I like what he's done at TPC Louisiana (a sole second last year, and a T38 back in 2007). He's yet to break through for a big check this year, but at least he's made three consecutive cuts entering this week. The timing seems right for a Lonard breakout.
Other C-List Options:
• Charles Howell has three top-10 cashes in New Orleans, but they all came on different courses; he's yet to make a start over this track. That's enough for me to look for other options
• Matt Kuchar has been one of our favorite C-List plays this year, but he's yet to find his best foot over the TPC Louisiana track (cut, T56, cut). Let's save him for a more comfortable spot
• Charlie Wi is another player we generally look towards, but he hasn't done much in this event. In three runs over this course, he's yet to crack the top 40
• Webb Simpson has cooled off a bit over the last two months (four missed cuts in six starts), and, as a rookie, he's got no course history to fall back on. Simpson's outstanding bunker game (he's second in sand saves) should come in handy; TPC Louisiana offers one of the harder bunker challenges on the circuit
• If you want to go for name power with your C-List selection, I'll suggest Ian Poulter, who grabbed a T7 check in New Orleans on a different course three years back. He played TPC Louisiana back in 2005, missing the cut (72-74).
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