The Fantasy Insider: St. Jude Classic presented by FedEx

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Jun. 9, 2009
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider

Get on your blue suede shoes and let's spend a week in Memphis negotiating the TPC Southwind track. We've got a solid field ready to go, and you know everyone wants to head to next week's U.S. Open with some momentum and confidence.

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Last week: We had the winner for the second consecutive week, not that it's difficult to say "Tiger Woods" on the prediction sheet. Still, Tiger's sublime Sunday helped us gain 1,132 slots in the spring rankings and 434 spots overall. Getting Luke Donald's Thursday run (64) on the books also helped the cause.

Fantasy game basics: We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List.

From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well.

The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.

You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.

A-List Selections
JUSTIN LEONARD (Round 1 starter): This is one of the easiest calls of the week -- Leonard knows how to get it done at TPC Southwind and the track record screams that out. He's the defending champ, he has a handful of top-10 finishes here (five in all), and he's got the profile you want over this layout (straight driving, true putting, sharp scrambling). I realize not everyone feels comfortable rolling with last year's winner, but I don't see how you can avoid it given how well Leonard fits the suit.

ROBERT ALLENBY: He's had his share of success at the St. Jude Classic (including a tie for second last year) and you're getting one of the best ball-strikers on the planet anytime you dial up Allenby. Ah, but can he make enough putts? I'll sit and watch one Allenby round, then re-evaluate my plans for the weekend, but I'll be surprised if he's outside the top 20.

OTHER A-LIST OPTIONS: Phil Mickelson is the sentimental favorite this week for obvious reasons, he's the biggest name in the field, and his creativity around the greens is just what you need to make things happen at TPC Southwind. But he's also coming into the event off a layoff, of course, and he hasn't been here since 2001. I'll be pulling for him as most of us will, but I'm not going to use one of my Mickelson plays in this spot . . .

Sergio Garcia bought some cred back with his solid play at the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, and he ran T4 at the St. Jude Classic last week, so if you're ready to welcome him back to the circle of trust, I can't blame you. But we also have to consider that he's 154th in driving accuracy this year, and 117th in putting . . .

Camilo Villegas has never missed a cut in three stops here (16, 46, 18), and he's quietly made seven cuts in a row. I get the feeling he's ready for a breakthrough summer (fifth in GIR, 21st in total driving -- that's a nice combo), and I'll be surprised if he's outside the top 20 this week . . .

Padraig Harrington ran fourth here last season but it's been a while since he made a deep run in a PGA TOUR event. He's outside the top 100 in driving accuracy, GIR and putting average, and that scares me away from him in this spot . . .

Don't be too hard on Michael Letzig for his disappointing final round at the Memorial -- playing with Tiger is a tall order, especially in the weekend -- and don't be surprised if he comes back with another strong check in this spot. He ran T18 at the St. Jude Classic last year, and he's a capable putter and scrambler . . .

John Senden has three top-20 finishes in six starts here, and he's one of the most reliable ball-strikers in the field. It's going to come down to putting with Senden, as it generally does. I'll sign off on another top 20, but I'm not sure he'll roll the ball well enough to make a run at the trophy.
B-List Selections
DAVID TOMS (Round 1 starter): He's had plenty of success here, winning in 2003 and 2004 and coming oh-so-close a handful of other times. Toms also has 13 straight cashes at the St. Jude Classic, and he's been very consistent and reliable in 2009, as you know. If there's a reason not to start him this week, I can't see it. You want some stats to back up the pick? Toms is first in driving accuracy, 30th in GIR, 18th in putting average, fourth in scoring and fifth in all-around rank. Now get him in there.

BOB ESTES (Round 1 starter): The perennially underrated pro has plenty of positive experiences at the St. Jude Classic (including a win in 2001), and he has the stat profile you want at TPC Southwind (19th in scrambling, 18th in driving accuracy). Two other things to like about the steady Estes: he's made 11-of-14 cuts this year, and his scoring average is remarkably consistent from Thursday to Sunday (70.14 high, 69.73 low). I'm sold, sign me up.

STEPHEN AMES: He's a reliable ball-striker and he knows how to get around in Memphis, grabbing four healthy checks in his last four starts here. Ames also enters this week rested and off three solid finishes, and that's enough to get him on my card for the week.

TIM CLARK: He's got a versatile and portable stat profile (fourth in driving accuracy, sixth in putting, second in all-around rank) and he's arguably the best veteran golfer without a victory, but will the disappointing finish two weeks ago leave some sort of emotional mark? Clark didn't do a lot in his first two visits to this tournament, but he was a solid T18 last year, albeit he stumbled on the final round (76). I'd like to see 18 holes first, but there's a good chance Clark will go three rounds for me this week.

Other B-List Options: It's a ball-striking course and that steers us to Boo Weekley, who's had some nifty results in three starts here (T4, T19). But how sharp is Weekley off a modest layoff? We haven't seen him since his withdrawal at TPC Sawgrass. That's enough to get him on my alternate list for this week . . .

It's always more fun when Woody Austin is involved and he did win this event in 2007, but oddly that's the only time in 11 starts here he's been inside the top 40. It's not the time to play favorites; there are too many other strong options in this pool for this week . . .

Brian Gay was my last name cut from the picks list in this pool; he's made 7-of-10 cuts at the St. Jude Classic and most of the cashes have been strong ones. Gay hit a mild slump after his win at the Verizon Heritage, but he got his game back at Colonial, shooting a 64 on the final day. He's ready to contend again . . .

You have to respect Graeme McDowell anytime you see him on our side of the pond, but we also have to consider that this is his debut at TPC Southwind. His T17 finish at the Masters raised some eyebrows, but he hasn't made a deep run in any other PGA TOUR start this year . . .

Fredrik Jacobson has some nice history here, albeit the best results are tucked at the beginning of the decade, and he did make five cuts in a row before last week's stumble in Ohio (77-73). The Swede tends to hit it all over the lot from time to time, but he's capable of making up strokes with his putting and scrambling, and he's generally someone who will score better than the stat profile suggests . . .

I'm a sucker for Aaron Baddeley's angelic putting stroke, but it's hard to feel good about the rest of his game right now. He's yet to make a mark at the St. Jude Classic, with a cut and a T53 over two visits.
C-List Selections
RETIEF GOOSEN (Round 1 starter): It's been a comeback year of sorts for the likeable South African; he's already got a win in the bag (Transitions Championship) and he's 14th in FedExCup points despite a limited schedule. Goosen hasn't made a deep run at the St. Jude Classic yet, but at least he's been over the grounds a couple of times. Scrambling is always a key when we're talking about TPC Southwind (the green are hard to hit) and Goosen ranks 20th in that stat for 2009.

HENRIK STENSON: He's never played this event but I can't get the sterling win at TPC Sawgrass out of my head, and given that Stenson doesn't play an extensive PGA TOUR schedule, I'm generally going to use him any chance we get. There are some good options in the pool below if you don't want to play a course rookie, but I've got stars in my eyes.

Others C-List Options: Matt Kuchar is back on the beam, cashing four times in a row including a T14 at The PLAYERS Championship and a T5 at the Memorial last week. Almost any week, I'd be going back to him here, but the presence of Goosen and Stenson forces me to consider Kuchar my third option . . .

Ben Crane has a portable game and mentality that translates to a lot of courses, and he's been steady at the St. Jude Classic, though he hasn't made the trip since 2005 . . .

Dean Wilson has some good history here, but we can't ignore the rough patch he's in the middle of this season -- he's missed the weekend in eight of his last nine events. I took a stab with him a few weeks back, but now I need a show of good faith before I try again . . .

It's been almost three months since Webb Simpson cashed a six-digit check, and he's missed six cuts over that span; looks like the rookie wall has claimed another victim. Playing all these courses without experience has to take a toll as well. Until Simpson gets back in the top 30 at an event, I'm a little gun shy about using him . . .

I like consistent, check-grabbing players and Ted Purdy has been that, with eight straight cuts made. But he's had some trouble over this track, and that's enough to steer me away this week, given some of the other big-name options he have available in this pool.
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