The Fantasy Insider: BMW Championship

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Sep. 9, 2009
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider

We say hello again to an old friend for Week 3 of the Playoffs, Cog Hill Golf & Country Club (after hosting a TOUR event from 1991-2007, Cog Hill took a year off last season and got a face lift). Smooth driving will be a requirement of the next BMW champ; the Dubsdread course checks in at over 7,500 yards.

Last Week: Once again, we had seven of eight players make the cut, with another winner up front in Steve Stricker. The 162 points gave us a nice push in summer rank and overall rank, and we're still in the 95th percentile for the year.

Fantasy Game Basics: We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List. From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit.

If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well. The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.

You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.

A-List Selections
TIGER WOODS (Round 1 starter): He has been hitting the ball superbly all summer and finally the putter came alive on Monday (a sizzling 63, rallying Woods into a tie for 11th). If there's any carryover effect when things start at Cog Hill, Woods could win in a runaway. Don't forget that he has four victories and two seconds over this track.

PADRAIG HARRINGTON: He'll post a big number here and there, but nothing seems to shake Harrington's focus and grit. He toughed his way to a tie for fourth last week when he didn't really have his best game, making it four consecutive top-10 finishes on his form. How can we not pick Harrington when he's posting results like these? I suppose we have to consider that Harrington has never played Cog Hill before, but given how much the course has been changed since 2007, that might not matter too much.

OTHER A-LIST OPTIONS:
Sergio Garcia continues to advance in the Playoffs, but we haven't seen his sharpest form for most of the year, and the rigors of playing six weeks in a row might be taking a toll. His last run at Cog Hill was a snappy T9, though, for what it's worth. ...
Kenny Perry openly admits he hasn't been especially focused on golf lately as he deals with some family issues, and Cog Hill has never been his favorite stop -- he has never cracked the top 10 here. It's easy to root for Perry, one of the really good guys on the circuit, but we probably should put him on the back burner for fantasy consideration until 2010. ...
Jim Furyk knew how to negotiate the previous layout at Cog Hill, grabbing seven top-10s over eight years, including a win in 2005. His ball striking wasn't in peak form last week, but somehow he was able to tie for eighth at the Deutsche Bank Championship. A player this talented has to win sometime, right?. ...
Ernie Els was playing as well as just about anyone entering TPC Boston last week, but things went south quickly (75-73, missed cut). He has made two stops at Cog Hill over the years (18, MC), and he tied for 17th at the BMW Championship last year. ...
Geoff Ogilvy got his mojo back with a tie for seventh at the Deutsche Bank Championship, and he definitely has the driving game to make a run this week. That said, the talented Aussie has an ordinary set of results at Cog Hill, with just one notable check (tied for fifth in 2004) to show for six starts here. ...
Anthony Kim was picking up momentum in July with a couple of third-place checks, but he hasn't seen a top-30 finish in his last four events, and he has only been in the 60s twice over that span.
B-List Selections
STEVE STRICKER (Round 1 starter): Steve Stricker (Round 1 starter): He has become one of the superstars of the FedExCup format, and a lot of players will tell you that he's the main challenger to Tiger Woods these days. There's only one reason not to use Stricker on your B-List this week -- you've already gone through all 10 of your options. Stricker knows what to do over this track, finishing third at Cog Hill in 2007.

JERRY KELLY: The crafty veteran has nine cashes in his last 10 starts, and four of his paydays have gone into six figures. Kelly doesn't have the ideal length for Cog Hill, but his flat stick (25th in putting) and resourcefulness (34th in scrambling) figure to give him a chance here.

HUNTER MAHAN: He's got the power and precision to do well here (sixth in total driving, ninth in GIR) and his recent play hasn't been that bad; he just needs to get off a strong Thursday start for once. If Mahan can sharpen his putting just an eyelash, he's going to be a superstar.

DUSTIN JOHNSON: There's a lot to like about his fourth-place showing in Boston -- Johnson led the field in driving distance and putts per round for the week. Give him a little better accuracy off the tee, and we might be looking at a trophy grab in the next two weeks. Johnson's making his BMW Championship debut -- that's why I'm not starting him right away -- but if he shows anything on Thursday, he'll be in the weekend game plan.

OTHER B-LIST OPTIONS:
I'll just be honest and admit I don't know what to make of Sean O'Hair's winning chances right now. He was one of the dominant players on TOUR for the first half of the year, then a puzzling summer slump hit, then we saw a strong rally last week at the Deutsche Bank Championship (T8). Cog Hill hasn't been his friend over the years (34, 30, 57), though the demands of the course would appear to fit O'Hair's skill set. You're on your own here, I'm not sure what the play is. ...
Rory Sabbatini is another enigma for us to figure out; he's been all over the place since his win at the HP Byron Nelson Championship, missing four of eight cuts and failing to break the top 30 once. He's 0-for-2 in playoff cuts so far. ...
Brian Gay has a good-not-great track record at Cog Hill; he has made five of eight cuts here with a best of T15. The length of the track doesn't play into his hands, however; he'll need to be letter perfect in all other areas of his game. ...
Perhaps the whirlwind summer of Lucas Glover is finally leading into a bit of a slump into the fall. He didn't have his best game at The Barclays two weeks back, and although he made the cut at the Deutsche Bank Championship, he never really made a run -- settling for a tie for 36th. Glover seems to like the Cog Hill layout, at least the last incarnation of it, tying for 14th and 15th in the last two stops here. ...
Tim Clark tied for eighth at the BMW Championship on a different course last year, and he also made a top-10 in his last two visits to Cog Hill. But is he in top form right now? He has missed two of three cuts coming into this event, and there have also been some physical issues to deal with. ...
Zach Johnson's ordinary length and so-so results at Cog Hill (38, 21, MC, MC) make him a fallback play in this spot rather than the go-to selection that he usually is.
C-List Selections
SCOTT VERPLANK (Round 1 starter): Looks like one of this week's no-brainers to me. Verplank has finished in the top 10 in both Playoff events (including a sizzling second at the Deutsche Bank Championship), and the estimable Texan now has five top-10s in his last eight starts. How can you look away from that sort of form?

RETIEF GOOSEN: It's hard to say no to his combination of power (wonderful driver) and touch (gutsy putter), and it all adds up to a pretty number (10th in scoring). Goosen comes into this week with 10 consecutive cuts made, including a snappy tie for eighth at TPC Boston last week.

OTHER C-LIST OPTIONS:
Y.E. Yang finally had an off week at the Deutsche Bank Championship, and he's one of the few players in this field who hasn't seen Cog Hill yet, in any incarnation. Let's give him a week on the bench. ...
Luke Donald has made five consecutive cuts at Cog Hill, and nothing was outside of T28, so give him a shot here. Donald also has ties to the Illinois area, having matriculated at Northwestern University and made his U.S. home in Chicago. ...
I'm out of Ian Poulter options for the year, so if he finally breaks through, it sadly won't be on my team. His lone turn at Cog Hill was a solid tie for 10th check back in 2007. ...
It's hard to say where Heath Slocum is right now; he had the dazzling win at The Barclays two weeks ago, but it has been sandwiched by a pair of missed cuts. His record at Cog Hill is respectable enough, with six consecutive cashes including a T12 and a T7.
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Player Events Money
Tiger Woods 17 $10,508,163
Steve Stricker 22 $6,332,636
Phil Mickelson 18 $5,332,755
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