The Fantasy Insider: Transitions Championship
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Four days in Tampa Bay sounds pretty good to me right now, but the pros won't have an easy go of it at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, one of the trickier courses on the circuit. Patience and precise ball striking will be key for anyone who wants to contend here, so keep those themes in mind as we make our fantasy selections of the week.
PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Golf -- here are the rules in a nutshell:
We're picking eight players every week from three separate pools: Two players from the A-List, four players from the B-List, and two players from the C-List. From round to round, you'll "start" four of those players (one of your A players, two from B, one from C), making daily changes as you see fit. If your guys play well that day or for the week, you score well. The eight players you pick at the beginning of the week are the only ones you can use and switch up during a particular tournament; the next week, you'll re-evaluate and refresh your group of eight.
You're allowed to use any player up to 10 starts for the year, and anything from 1-4 rounds in a given event counts as a single "start." As always, choose carefully, and have a long-term plan in addition to your short-term goals.
A-List Selections
K.J. Choi (Round 1 starter): He's the only two-time winner of this event, and he's been on his game in 2009, making five consecutive cuts in stroke-play events, including three top-15 checks. Choi's true driving (28th in tee accuracy) and radar irons (fourth in GIR) make him especially dangerous at this event. He needs to be in your lineup.
Kenny Perry: I wasn't sure what he'd do for an encore after 2008's surprising year, but Perry hasn't slipped at all this time around. He's already got a win this season (at the FBR Open) in addition to three other top-10 finishes, and he's always been comfortable at the Copperhead Course (five consecutive cuts made, three top-20 checks). Fourth in ball striking, 11th in total driving, that's a game that will translate anywhere.
Other A-List Options: While Jim Furyk is never a bad play at any time and he should translate well to this event (over a grinder's course), we also have to consider that he's only been to this tournament once (missed cut in 2004), and he hasn't won a PGA TOUR event since July of 2007. His play at the two World Golf Championships events (third, T9) boost his confidence, but I'm not considering him an automatic punch in this position ... John Senden has been in a slump since the beginning of February (one missed cut in-between a T50 and T27), but a trip to Innisbrook might be the perfect tonic to get him back in form. He's tied for second at this event the last two years, and this is another dynamite iron player who fits the course (10th in GIR)
Ryuji Imada is another potential horse for the course, with two strong showings on his Innisbrook resume (T2 last year, T13 in 2006). He's made six of seven cuts this season, and he's in the midst of an outstanding year on the greens (ninth in putting average) ... Trevor Immelman hasn't been in serious contention this year (the driver has been a notable problem) and if form holds, he probably won't be in the hunt at the Transitions Championship. He's made three starts over this track, with lukewarm results (T65, T43, T44)
Kevin Sutherland seems to like tougher tracks that force a grinding mentality, and he cashed a solid tie for 14th here last season after a couple of missed cuts. He's yet to make a serious run in 2009, but he's only missed one cut in six stroke-play events ... Kevin Na is another big name that might be tempting to roll with here, but Innisbrook has gotten the better of him in recent visits. He's only made one cut in his last four Tampa starts, a tie for 57th back in 2005
Give props to Michael Letzig for consistency -- he's made seven cuts in a row -- but other than his T12 at the FBR Open, he doesn't have a payday over $25,000 on his 2009 resume. He's a safe pick to play four rounds in Tampa, but asking for a weekend in contention seems like a bit of a stretch, especially considering his ranks off the tee (101st in accuracy) and on the greens (143rd in putting).
B-List Selections
Sean O'Hair (Round 1 starter): He's quietly in the midst of a breakthrough season, finishing in the top 25 in all six of his 2009 starts (and five of those checks landed in the top 13). Course knowledge, no problem -- O'Hair is the defending champion here, and he also finished 10th in 2005. His driver can get a little crooked now and then, but otherwise there's a lot to like on O'Hair's stat profile, especially his steady iron play (11th in GIR) and dependable roll on the greens (28th in putting). He's as strong a play as you can make this week.
Steve Stricker (Round 1 Starter): Here's another player who's hit the ground running in 2009, with five outstanding finishes in six starts (including a second at the Northern Trust Open and a third at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic). Stricker finally figured out Innisbrook last year with a respectable tie for 14th, and he's the type of player who gets a better chance to win when the course is difficult (his brilliant putter comes in handy there). I'll be stunned if Sticker isn't getting a lot of face time on the weekend, he's well placed for a strong event.
Rod Pampling: He's quietly made four consecutive cuts in 2009 including a couple inside the top 12, and the Copperhead Course has always suited his eye, with three top-10 finishes over the last five years. If Pampling can keep enough drives in the fairway this week, (he's 179th in tee accuracy), his reliable iron play and outstanding putting will give him a good chance to make a run.
Tim Clark: Here's another player you like to dial up on tight, difficult tracks, and he's had his share of success in Tampa Bay, tying for 19th last year and 11th three seasons back. It's hard to imagine how Clark won't be a four-round story this week, considering what he's capable of doing off the tee (10th in accuracy), in the fairway (second in GIR) and on the greens (33rd in putting average). His ordinary length with the driver won't be a problem on this layout.
Other B-List Options: David Toms fits the suit that we're looking for on this course, and he's been steady thus far in 2009, but after two consecutive missed cuts in Tampa Bay, I'll give him a week on the bench, not a week on the Tampa beach ... Adam Scott has two ordinary results here (T35, cut), and it certainly doesn't look like he's found his best foot in 2009 yet. He currently stands 117th in scoring average and 159th in total driving, and there's no way to positively spin those numbers
Nick Watney enters this week plenty confident and plenty hot (five top-25 finishes already in 2009, including the Buick Invitational win). His consistency on the greens makes him a viable play just about anywhere, but his distance off the tee isn't a particular aid at Innisbrook, and while he's made three consecutive cuts here, nothing landed inside the top 20 ... Charley Hoffman is another fast-starting player who might cool off at the Transitions Championship. He's missed the cut in two of three starts over this course, and while he's got a pretty balanced stat profile going in 2009, his prodigious length off the tee won't get ideal run in this spot
We know how Mark Calcavecchia feels about playing in Florida, and he's done plenty of damage at this event, wrapping ties for 14th and 19th around his 2007 win. Calc had a couple of dynamite rounds at The Honda Classic two weeks back, then took a week off; he should be ready to get it going again ... Stephen Ames hasn't shot a round in the 60s since the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic back in January, and while he can point to five consecutive cashes at this event, his last serious contention at Innisbrook occurred in 2005. Keep him on your bench
Zach Johnson is always a tempting play on name-brand value alone, but he's struggled in his last two stroke-play starts (T53, cut), and his track record at the Copperhead Course is ordinary (T14, T55, cut). There will be better positions to run him out there ... It's hard to look away from D.J. Trahan's stat profile; he's currently leading the TOUR in Total Driving and Greens in Regulation -- a devastating combination. But he's never broken inside the top 50 in three starts at Innisbrook, so we'll have to assume that for some reason this track doesn't suit his eye ... Bart Bryant is a good name for the sleeper list, with six consecutive Innisbrook cashes to his name (T13, T12, T44, T16, T44, T31). He's straight off the tee (ninth in driving accuracy), and that's one of the first things you look for down in Tampa.
C-List Selections
Charlie Wi (Round 1 starter): I trust him on the tee, I love his game on the green, I like that he's contended in two of his last three starts this year and I also feel good that he's seen this course and been respectable (T23, T43). He's long been one of the most underrated players on TOUR, but I get the idea that's about to change as we get deeper into 2009.
Ben Crane: I think he's turned the corner with his deep runs at the Buick Invitational (T7) and The Honda Classic (T3), and we know tougher tracks and patient play won't bother Crane one bit. It's a little surprising he's yet to do anything of note in Tampa, but he does have three consecutive cashes here, and I'm expecting him to get inside the top 20 this week.
Other C-List Options: Retief Goosen hoisted the hardware in Tampa in 2003, but it's been somewhat of a struggle since then (T20, T44, cut, cut). He's buried in the driving stats this year, and he's also struggled with iron play (in direct contrast to what we saw during his glory years), which is enough to steer me away from him this week, big name and all ... Alvaro Quiros grabbed everyone's attention with last week's tie for 13th at the World Golf Championships-CA Championship, but also keep in mind that the young Spaniard has never been to this event, and his length off the tee won't help him that much at Innisbrook. It's tempting to run with the next big thing, but let's wait for a course that suits him better
Charles Howell III can point to five checks in six starts at Tampa, including a tie for sixth two seasons ago. It's all about early confidence with CH3; if you see a low round on Thursday, he's got an excellent chance to be a four-day story ... Matt Kuchar has been reliable for us in recent turns (five consecutive cuts), but he's only been over this track once in the last four years, a missed cut in 2007
Y.E. Yang struggled at the CA Championship (73-70-73-78) on the heels of his Honda Classic win, and it's hard to expect him to take the Transitions Championship by storm as he makes his tournament debut. Noting that he's 165th in driving accuracy and 109th in putting, I'm a little wary of using Yang over a course he's yet to play.
Last Week: A modest 118 points last week, but we still picked up 1,217 slots in the rankings, as a lot of pundits took their lumps at the CA Championship. Three days of Tiger Woods (T9) and two rounds of Ian Poulter (T13) made up for some other missteps (Geoff Ogilvy, Billy Mayfair, Aaron Baddeley).
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