Players to watch: BellSouth Classic

TPC Sugarloaf is the host course again for the BellSouth Classic. In 2005, five players, Phil Mickelson, Jose Maria Olazabal, Brandt Jobe, Arjun Atwal, and Rich Beem were tied after a rain-delayed 54 holes and had to determine the champion via a mass Monday afternoon playoff. Mickelson emerged from the group as the victor, but this tournament could have been claimed by any of the five.

The statistics from the event show that each of the players ended up in the playoff using a slightly different route. Some used power and accuracy; some used accuracy and putting; and one scrambled his way into the final mix. In fact, the only thing that each of the five really had in common was there was just one area of each player’s game that kept him from pulling away from the rest of the pack.

Consider the following:

•  Beem was first in greens in regulation and second in proximity to the hole, but was tied for 39th in putting average.
•  Olazabal was fifth ball striking, but ranked 28th in proximity to the hole and tied for 61st in scrambling.
•  Atwal was first in birdie average and fourth in putting average, but tied for 22nd in greens in regulation and 54th in three-putt avoidance.
•  Jobe led the field in scrambling, but finished tied for 33rd in greens in regulation and 39th in birdie average.
•  Mickelson was fifth in putting average and tied for third in birdie average, but tied for 53rd in scrambling percentage and was tied for 70th in driving accuracy.

So who to watch at the event

Looking back at the finishes over the last three years, two types of players that finished in the top 10 of the event really stood out -- the bombers and the putters. Scott Hend, Hank Kuehne, Mickelson, Zach Johnson, Dennis Paulson, and Lucas Glover have finished near the top for the big hitters, while Atwal, Ben Crane, Stewart Cink, and Retief Goosen have all represented the strong putters well at this event. With that mix of players at the top of the leaderboard in recent years, I looked at five ShotLink statistics that cover these two distinct attributes. For power, I looked at average driving distance and percentage of all drives exceeding 300 yards, while for putting I selected putting average and birdie or better conversion percentage. The fifth stat selected was greens in regulation, as neither of the first two are very useful if a player’s approach shots are not on target.

Looking at the players in 2006 that have displayed a good combination of both power off the tee and touch on the greens, there are quite a few in the field this week, and if they are on their game, they should all fare well on this course. Phil Mickelson tops the list with fellow playoff participant Brandt Jobe also appearing. I would expect John Rollins to follow his strong performance at THE PLAYERS Championship last week with another this week, and two of the rookies this week -- Bubba Watson and Henrik Bjornstad -- each have the skills to make this the site of their first victory on the PGA TOUR.

Who to watch for at the BellSouth Classic -- 2006 Season Averages